HomerProof keys this season3 Hit1 Split1 Misssince Week 9
Last week · Final · Week 9
Texas 31 Mississippi State 3
Sat, Oct 31DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumNext: at Missouri, Sat, Nov 7, 11 AM CT
Line: Texas -19.5 · won by 28 · covered by 8.5
Our 5 keys for Mississippi State, graded
HitFix the third quarter. 41% success in the third (season 35%) and a 75-yard touchdown drive right after the strip-sack. MSU managed 7% in the third.
HitMove the completion point to the middle. Short middle went 4 of 6 for 86 yards and took 29% of the throws, up from about 20% on the season.
HitTake away Evans III and the left-side run. Evans had 3 catches for 19 yards and lost 10 rushing. MSU ran left only 3 times and finished at 25% success and 187 yards.
SplitWin 3rd-and-4 to 6. 2 of 5 (40%), better than the 32% season rate but still the down that stalls drives.
MissRun right and protect Cojoe. Runs to the right went 2 of 9. Five sacks on 26 dropbacks is the worst sack rate of the season, and one became MSU's only points.
Next: at Missouri, Sat Nov 7, 11 AM CT. Every Missouri snap this season, set against what Texas does best and worst. Garbage time excluded.
#8 vs #18SP+ rankTexas vs Missouri
6-2Missouri recordLosses at Mississippi State and Ole Miss
Texas -2.5The lineTotal 43.5
#42 / #11Missouri SP+Offense / defense
Keys for Texas
Take away the short middle.
It is Missouri's best throw (+0.8 EPA per pass, 51% success) and the softest spot in the Texas defense (60% success allowed there). Everything else Missouri throws short averages less than half as much. Make Austin Simmons win outside the numbers.
Make it 3rd-and-long.
Missouri converts 3rd-and-4 to 6 at a 50% clip, throwing almost every time. On 3rd-and-7 or more it drops to 28%, and that is where the Texas defense is at its best (14% success allowed). The game is won on first and second down.
Take the shots.
Missouri's defense is #17 in success rate but #118 in explosiveness: it rarely bends, but when a play gets through it goes the distance. Manning's deep-left throws have produced 62% success and +1.5 EPA each. Short middle (+1.0) is his other money throw, and Missouri gives that up too.
Keep Manning upright.
Texas gives up a sack on 10.2% of dropbacks. Missouri's defense gets one on 6.8% and ranks #14 in havoc. On the other side, Missouri allows a sack on just 2.6% of dropbacks, so the Texas pass rush has to win with coverage, not just Biles.
Make them kick.
Missouri runs 70% of the time inside the 20 and succeeds on 33% of those plays; it ranks #86 in points per trip inside the 40. The Texas defense is #6 in the same stat. Field goals instead of touchdowns decide a game this close (Texas -2.5).
Win the third quarter.
Texas's offense is at its worst in the third quarter (-0.0 EPA per play). Missouri's is at its best (+0.3). That is the 15 minutes this game turns on.
The matchups, by national rank
Rank among FBS teams. The better rank in each pairing is highlighted.
When Texas has the ball
Measure
Texas offense
Missouri defense
EPA per play
#104 +0.0
#22 -0.0
Success rate
#78 41.8%
#17 35.7%
Explosiveness
#87 1.2
#118 1.3
EPA per pass
#66 +0.2
#33 +0.0
EPA per rush
#116 -0.0
#23 -0.0
Line yards
#120 2.7
#12 2.5
Stuff rate
#111 20.6%
#29 22.0%
Havoc allowed
#125 18.1%
#14 19.5%
Passing-down success
#56 32.1%
#31 26.1%
Points per trip inside the 40
#18 4.5
#26 2.9
When Missouri has the ball
Measure
Missouri offense
Texas defense
EPA per play
#51 +0.1
#16 -0.0
Success rate
#80 41.3%
#7 33.5%
Explosiveness
#41 1.3
#14 1.1
EPA per pass
#32 +0.3
#19 +0.0
EPA per rush
#88 +0.0
#19 -0.0
Line yards
#94 2.9
#13 2.5
Stuff rate
#105 20.1%
#33 21.8%
Havoc allowed
#81 15.4%
#10 20.0%
Passing-down success
#78 30.4%
#8 22.3%
Points per trip inside the 40
#86 3.5
#6 2.3
Missouri, game by game
EPA per play on offense and allowed on defense
Expand
Offense EPA/playDefense EPA/play allowed
MixedExpect Missouri to move the ball: its offense has been above average in seven of eight games. Its two losses came when the defense got pushed around (Mississippi State and Ole Miss are the only offenses that moved it), and Ole Miss shut the Missouri offense down too (31-3).
More analysis
Bar by bar, with the numbers behind each one.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff+0.3 · +0.0
Offense EPA/play: +0.32nd highest of 8, average +0.1
Defense EPA/play allowed: +0.04th highest of 8, average +0.0
An FCS opponent, and Missouri's offense did what it should (+0.3 a play).
Kansas+0.1 · -0.1
Offense EPA/play: +0.15th highest of 8, average +0.1
Defense EPA/play allowed: -0.16th highest of 8, average +0.0
Won by 17 on the road; the defense kept Kansas below average.
Troy+0.1 · -0.0
Offense EPA/play: +0.14th highest of 8, average +0.1
Defense EPA/play allowed: -0.05th highest of 8, average +0.0
Closer than it should have been at 27-17, but the defense again held Troy under water.
Mississippi State+0.1 · +0.1
Offense EPA/play: +0.16th highest of 8, average +0.1
Defense EPA/play allowed: +0.12nd highest of 8, average +0.0
The first loss, 31-24 at Mississippi State. The defense allowed +0.1 a play, its second-worst game.
Florida+0.4 · +0.0
Offense EPA/play: +0.4highest of 8, average +0.1
Defense EPA/play allowed: +0.03rd highest of 8, average +0.0
Missouri's best offensive game (+0.4): 45 points on the same Florida team that beat Texas.
Texas A&M+0.0 · -0.1
Offense EPA/play: +0.07th highest of 8, average +0.1
Defense EPA/play allowed: -0.17th highest of 8, average +0.0
Won 27-6 with a barely-positive offense and a defense (-0.1) that smothered Texas A&M.
Ole Miss-0.0 · +0.3
Offense EPA/play: -0.0lowest of 8, average +0.1
Defense EPA/play allowed: +0.3highest of 8, average +0.0
Shut down 31-3: the only game Missouri's offense was below average, and the defense's worst day (+0.3).
Arkansas+0.2 · -0.1
Offense EPA/play: +0.23rd highest of 8, average +0.1
Defense EPA/play allowed: -0.1lowest of 8, average +0.0
Bounced back 34-10; the defense (-0.1) was back to form.
The short-middle collision
EPA per pass by zone. Top: Missouri's offense. Bottom: what the Texas defense allows
Expand
ConcernLonger bar = more points per throw. The two bars that jump out are both the short middle. Missouri's best target area runs straight into the one zone the Texas defense has not locked down (60% success allowed). Deep zones are small samples.
More analysis
Every bar, opened up.
Short left · Missouri offense+0.3 · 90 att
90Attempts
46.7%Success
0.3EPA per pass
Short middle · Missouri offense+0.8 · 41 att
41Attempts
51.2%Success
0.8EPA per pass
The collision: Missouri's best throw against the zone the Texas defense has not locked down.
Short right · Missouri offense+0.2 · 58 att
58Attempts
46.6%Success
0.2EPA per pass
Deep left · Missouri offense+0.0 · 9 att
9Attempts
44.4%Success
0.0EPA per pass
Deep middle · Missouri offense+0.0 · 16 att
16Attempts
25%Success
0.0EPA per pass
Deep right · Missouri offense-0.0 · 12 att
12Attempts
25%Success
-0.0EPA per pass
Short left · Texas defense allows0.0 · 81 att
81Attempts
33.3%Success
0.0EPA per pass
Short middle · Texas defense allows+0.5 · 43 att
43Attempts
60.5%Success
0.5EPA per pass
The collision: Missouri's best throw against the zone the Texas defense has not locked down.
Short right · Texas defense allows+0.2 · 88 att
88Attempts
34.1%Success
0.2EPA per pass
Deep left · Texas defense allows+0.5 · 9 att
9Attempts
33.3%Success
0.5EPA per pass
Deep middle · Texas defense allows-0.9 · 6 att
6Attempts
0%Success
-0.9EPA per pass
Deep right · Texas defense allows+0.2 · 9 att
9Attempts
33.3%Success
0.2EPA per pass
Missouri's offense by situation
What Missouri calls and how it works, by down and distance.
Situation
Plays
Run rate
Success
EPA/play
Explosive
1st down
201
64.2%
40.8%
+0.0
14.9%
2nd and 7+
101
46.5%
34.7%
+0.3
21.8%
2nd and 3 or less
19
57.9%
57.9%
-0.2
0%
3rd/4th and 1 to 3
24
62.5%
62.5%
-0.0
4.2%
3rd/4th and 4 to 6
32
12.5%
50%
+0.8
15.6%
3rd/4th and 7+
54
16.7%
27.8%
+0.4
14.8%
Inside the 20
70
70%
32.9%
+0.2
7.1%
All plays
463
49.5%
40%
+0.1
15.6%
Missouri players producing the most expected points: Austin Simmons (QB, +79.0), Cayden Lee (WR, +41.1), Donovan Olugbode (WR, +38.7), Jamal Roberts (RB, +25.6). Missouri converts 45 of 103 third downs (44%).
Scout archive
Every week's keys, graded after the game. The archive starts with Week 9, when HomerProof launched.
Week 9 · vs Mississippi State · W 31-3Keys: 3 hits, 1 split, 1 miss · covered
Hit: Fix the third quarter.41% success in the third (season 35%) and a 75-yard touchdown drive right after the strip-sack. MSU managed 7% in the third.
Hit: Move the completion point to the middle.Short middle went 4 of 6 for 86 yards and took 29% of the throws, up from about 20% on the season.
Hit: Take away Evans III and the left-side run.Evans had 3 catches for 19 yards and lost 10 rushing. MSU ran left only 3 times and finished at 25% success and 187 yards.
Split: Win 3rd-and-4 to 6.2 of 5 (40%), better than the 32% season rate but still the down that stalls drives.
Miss: Run right and protect Cojoe.Runs to the right went 2 of 9. Five sacks on 26 dropbacks is the worst sack rate of the season, and one became MSU's only points.
Team trends
Every snap of the season, weeks 1 to 8. Tap a chart to open it full screen with the numbers behind it.
What's working
An elite defense: #7 nationally in success rate allowed and #6 in points allowed per trip inside the 40. It is why Texas is #8 in SP+.
Fast starts: points on the opening drive in 6 of 8 games.
Strong finishes: the fourth quarter is the best quarter, 3.3 points a drive and 9 touchdowns.
Finishing drives: #18 nationally in points per trip inside the 40.
The passing game: Manning is at +0.1 EPA a play, and his deep-left throws work 62% of the time.
What isn't
The third quarter: the only quarter Texas has been outscored (34-40).
Run blocking: #120 of 138 nationally in line yards.
Protection in a few games: about 1 in 5 dropbacks ended in a sack against Tennessee, Florida and Mississippi State.
Defensive penalties: 21 flags worth 40.1 points (see Discipline).
Texas offense SP+ offense #16
EPA per play+0.0#104
Success rate41.8%#78
Explosiveness1.2#87
EPA per pass+0.2#66
EPA per rush-0.0#116
Line yards2.7#120
Stuff rate20.6%#111
Havoc allowed18.1%#125
Passing-down success32.1%#56
Points per trip inside the 404.5#18
Texas defense SP+ defense #7
EPA per play-0.0#16
Success rate33.5%#7
Explosiveness1.1#14
EPA per pass+0.0#19
EPA per rush-0.0#19
Line yards2.5#13
Stuff rate21.8%#33
Havoc20.0%#10
Passing-down success22.3%#8
Points per trip inside the 402.3#6
National rank among 138 FBS teams, garbage time excluded. Green is top 25, red is bottom 35. Texas is #8 in SP+ overall: an elite defense carrying an offense that ranks #104 in EPA per play.
Fast starts
Points on the opening drive (bars) vs points per drive the rest of the game (line)
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Opening drive pointsPoints per drive, rest of game
Good signTexas comes out of the tunnel ready. It has scored on its first drive in 6 of 8 games (5 touchdowns), 4.8 points a drive against 2.5 on the season. The opening script is clearly working. The catch: the second drive has scored in only 3 of 8, so the challenge is keeping it going once defenses adjust.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)7 · 5.6
Opening drive points: 7highest of 8, average 4.8
Points per drive, rest of game: 5.6highest of 8, average 2.3
Points per drive by quarter, Texas offense and what the defense allows, season
Expand
Texas points per driveOpponent points per drive
Good signThe fourth quarter is Texas at its best: 3.3 points a drive and 9 touchdowns on 21 possessions, while opponents manage 1.0. That is how Texas came back to beat Ohio State (21 fourth-quarter points) and went 80 yards for the go-ahead score against Ole Miss. The third quarter is the dip, covered in its own chart below.
More analysis
Bar by bar, with the numbers behind each one.
Q12.7 · 0.8
Texas points per drive: 2.72nd highest of 4, average 2.4
Opponent points per drive: 0.8lowest of 4, average 1.1
Q22.3 · 1.2
Texas points per drive: 2.33rd highest of 4, average 2.4
Opponent points per drive: 1.22nd highest of 4, average 1.1
Q31.5 · 1.6
Texas points per drive: 1.5lowest of 4, average 2.4
Opponent points per drive: 1.6highest of 4, average 1.1
Q43.2 · 1.0
Texas points per drive: 3.2highest of 4, average 2.4
Opponent points per drive: 1.03rd highest of 4, average 1.1
Finishing drives
Drives that reached the opponent 40: points per trip (bars) and number of trips (line)
Expand
Points per tripTrips
Good signWhen Texas gets close, it scores. 39 of 42 trips past the opponent 40 have ended in points, 27 of them touchdowns, for 5.4 points a trip. Nationally, with garbage time removed, Texas ranks #18 of 138 in points per trip. The offense's problem is getting there often enough, not finishing.
Share of opponent snaps that went for an explosive play (runs of 10+ yards, completions of 15+)
Expand
Good signOpponents have to earn every yard. Since UTSA, the defense has allowed a big play on only 4.5 to 11% of snaps, and it ranks #14 of 138 nationally at limiting explosive plays. That forces long drives, and long drives give a defense this good more chances to get a stop.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)15.5%
Explosive plays allowed: 15.5%highest of 8, average 9.1%
MixedA play counts as a success when it keeps Texas on schedule. The offense has been stuck at 37 to 42% in all five SEC games, short of the 45% a top SEC offense lives at. The defense is the opposite story: no SEC opponent has topped 36%, and Mississippi State managed 25%, the best defensive game of the season.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)50% · 43.1%
Offense success: 50%highest of 8, average 42.4%
Defense allowed: 43.1%highest of 8, average 33.8%
Texas scored on 8 of its 9 real possessions. The 43% the defense allowed is its worst rate of the season, but Texas State scored on one drive and missed two field goals.
Offense success: 48.1%2nd highest of 8, average 42.4%
Defense allowed: 38.1%2nd highest of 8, average 33.8%
Two halves in one game: fumble, interception and punt on the first three possessions, then touchdown drives of 91, 72 and 73 yards over the last 21 minutes. Ohio State's 38% is the highest of any opponent except Texas State.
Defense allowed: 30.3%6th highest of 8, average 33.8%
Success fell to 37% and six possessions were three-and-outs. After the opening touchdown Texas managed two field goals over the next nine possessions before the fourth-quarter touchdown. The defense (30% allowed) won this one.
Offense success: 38.1%6th highest of 8, average 42.4%
Defense allowed: 35.2%4th highest of 8, average 33.8%
Seven three-and-outs on 15 possessions, the most of the season. The defense held up: Oklahoma's offense scored 13 points, and the other 14 came on a punt return and an interception return.
Offense success: 42%4th highest of 8, average 42.4%
Defense allowed: 35.9%3rd highest of 8, average 33.8%
Only 10 possessions, because Florida held the ball for 38 minutes. Texas scored on three of them (17 offensive points) plus Niblett's punt-return touchdown.
Offense success: 40%5th highest of 8, average 42.4%
Defense allowed: 32.9%5th highest of 8, average 33.8%
40% for the game, but it was 24-3 at the half and Texas was outscored 24-10 after it. Three turnovers, including the strip-sack returned for a touchdown.
Offense success: 37.7%7th highest of 8, average 42.4%
Defense allowed: 25.4%lowest of 8, average 33.8%
The best defensive game of the season: 25% allowed and 3 points. On offense, a touchdown on the opening drive and touchdown drives of 75 and 62 yards in the second half, with five three-and-outs in between.
ConcernThe third quarter is where Texas goes cold: 35% success, about 10 points below every other quarter. It has cost real games. Texas led Oklahoma 17-7, Florida 17-3 and Ole Miss 24-3 and gave up 20, 24 and 21 unanswered points. Mississippi State was a good sign (41% and a touchdown drive in the third), but one week is not a fix.
More analysis
Drive by drive, quarter by quarter, all eight games. Texas averages 2.5 points per possession on the season; the quarters are measured against that.
1st quarter65-19 · 44.5% success
65-19Points, all 8 games
44.5%Offense success
+0.2Offense EPA per play
12 of 25Texas drives that scored
2.7Points per Texas drive
9Three-and-outs
32.7%Success allowed
0.8Points per opponent drive
52%Manning success
What Texas does well
The scripted opening drive is the best thing this offense does. Texas has scored on its first possession in 6 of 8 games (5 touchdowns, 1 field goal), 38 points in all. That is 4.8 points per drive, nearly double its season rate. Texas State (TD, 4 plays, 56 yds), UTSA (TD, 4 plays, 37 yds), Tennessee (TD, 7 plays, 75 yds), Florida (TD, 7 plays, 75 yds), Ole Miss (FG, 12 plays, 69 yds), Mississippi State (TD, 4 plays, 62 yds).
The openers are long, clean marches, not short fields: 47.1 yards on average, and three of them went 62 to 75 yards in four to seven plays.
Manning's best quarter. His plays succeed 52% of the time in the first quarter, against 45% on the season.
The defense starts fast too: 0.8 points per opponent drive, its best quarter, with 11 three-and-outs on 27 first-quarter possessions.
What it doesn't
The script is one drive deep. The second possession has scored in only 3 of 8 games, 1.6 points per drive, with 3 three-and-outs and 2 turnovers. Once the defense has seen the opening calls, the first-quarter offense looks like the rest of the game.
The two openers that failed failed fast: Ohio State (Fumble) and Oklahoma (Punt). Against Oklahoma, Texas went three-and-out on four of its five first-quarter possessions; the only points came on a one-play, 41-yard touchdown.
9 of 25 first-quarter possessions were three-and-outs, more than the second or fourth quarter.
Game
Texas
Opp
TXST
14
0
OSU
0
10
UTSA
10
3
@TENN
7
3
OU
7
0
FLA
10
0
MISS
10
3
MSST
7
0
2nd quarter71-34 · 45.2% success
71-34Points, all 8 games
45.2%Offense success
+0.0Offense EPA per play
9 of 20Texas drives that scored
2.4Points per Texas drive
5Three-and-outs
34.3%Success allowed
1.3Points per opponent drive
46%Manning success
What Texas does well
The most efficient quarter on a per-play basis apart from the fourth (45.2% success). Texas scored on 9 of 20 second-quarter drives and averaged 37.9 yards per possession, its longest of any quarter.
Ole Miss is the template: touchdown drives of 61 and 62 yards to open the quarter, a 24-3 halftime lead, and Biles' goal-line interception to end Ole Miss' 82-yard march.
Big plays from the other units: Watson's 61-yard fumble return against Mississippi State, Littleton's scoop-and-score against Texas State and Niblett's punt-return touchdown against Florida all came in the second quarter.
What it doesn't
The end of the half. Ohio State and Florida both scored touchdowns in the final minute, and both drives started at the Texas 49 after Texas went for it on fourth down and failed. That is 14 points handed over in two games Texas lost or nearly lost.
The fourth-down calls cut both ways: Texas has turned it over on downs 3 times in second quarters, against Ohio State, UTSA and Florida.
Game
Texas
Opp
TXST
14
7
OSU
3
10
UTSA
10
0
@TENN
3
0
OU
10
7
FLA
7
10
MISS
14
0
MSST
10
0
3rd quarter34-40 · 35.2% success
34-40Points, all 8 games
35.2%Offense success
-0.0Offense EPA per play
7 of 26Texas drives that scored
1.6Points per Texas drive
9Three-and-outs
31.2%Success allowed
1.7Points per opponent drive
41%Manning success
The only quarter Texas has been outscored, 34-40. Take out Texas State (21-0) and it is 13-40 over the other seven games. In SEC play it is 10-34.
Where it breaks
The halftime script does not work like the opening one. Texas' first possession of the second half has scored once in 8 games (Texas State), 0.9 points per drive and 13.6 yards on average. Compare that with 6 of 8 for the first drive of the game. Three of those possessions handed the opponent points: a Tennessee punt-return touchdown, the Ole Miss strip-sack returned for a touchdown, and the Mississippi State strip-sack that set up a field goal.
Drives die quickly: 9 three-and-outs on 26 third-quarter possessions and 22 yards per drive, the shortest of any quarter.
The EPA is the only negative quarter of the four (-0.0 per play), and Manning's plays succeed 41% of the time, his worst quarter.
Flags pile on: 15 Texas penalties in third quarters have cost 21.7 expected points, the most of any quarter (see Discipline). Three defensive flags came on one Ole Miss touchdown drive.
What still works
The defense, snap for snap. It allows 31.2% success in the third, its best quarter. It gives up more points (1.7 per drive) because it is back on the field after quick three-and-outs and gets beaten by a few long drives: Florida's 15-play, 8-minute touchdown to open the half and Ole Miss' 80 and 71-yard drives.
When Texas does score in the third it tends to be one sustained drive: the 75-yard touchdown march against Mississippi State came right after the fumble that cost a field goal.
What to watch against Missouri: Missouri's offense is at its best in the third quarter (+0.3 per play). The first Texas possession after halftime should get the same scripted treatment as the opener, because the opener is the one thing that reliably scores.
Every first possession of the second half
Texas State: TD, 6 plays, 75 yds
Ohio State: Punt, 4 plays, 17 yds (Texas kicked off to start the half)
UTSA: Punt, 3 plays, -11 yds
Tennessee: Punt, returned for a TD, 3 plays, 3 yds (Texas kicked off to start the half)
Oklahoma: Punt, 4 plays, 24 yds
Florida: Punt, 3 plays, 6 yds (Texas kicked off to start the half)
Ole Miss: Fumble, returned for a TD, 4 plays, -12 yds
Mississippi State: Fumble, 5 plays, 7 yds (Texas kicked off to start the half)
Game
Texas
Opp
TXST
21
0
OSU
0
3
UTSA
3
3
@TENN
3
7
OU
0
3
FLA
0
7
MISS
0
14
MSST
7
3
4th quarter76-44 · 46.6% success
76-44Points, all 8 games
46.6%Offense success
+0.1Offense EPA per play
11 of 21Texas drives that scored
3.3Points per Texas drive
4Three-and-outs
36.1%Success allowed
1Points per opponent drive
49%Manning success
What Texas does well
The best quarter on the season: 46.6% success, 3.3 points per drive and 9 touchdowns on 21 possessions, with only 4 three-and-outs.
It wins games. Texas scored 21 fourth-quarter points to beat Ohio State (touchdown drives of 72 and 73 yards after a 91-yarder that carried over from the third), went 80 yards for the go-ahead touchdown against Ole Miss, and answered Florida with a 75-yard drive.
What it doesn't
Turnovers: 4 fourth-quarter giveaways, including the Oklahoma pick-six and the interception that set up Oklahoma's winning field goal with three seconds left.
Opponents scored their most points in the fourth (44): 17 by Oklahoma, one of them on the pick-six, and Tennessee's 80-yard touchdown drive that made it 20-17 with 1:22 left.
Game
Texas
Opp
TXST
10
0
OSU
21
0
UTSA
7
0
@TENN
7
7
OU
7
17
FLA
7
10
MISS
10
10
MSST
7
0
How these are counted: points go to the quarter they were scored in, including return touchdowns. Drives are grouped by the quarter they started; possessions that ran out the clock at the half or the end of the game are left out.
Expected points added per play
Texas offense and what the defense allowed, by game (garbage time excluded)
Expand
Offense EPA/playDefense EPA/play allowed
MixedAbove the dotted line means a play did better than an average play from the same down, distance and spot; below means it lost ground. The offense fell below the line in three straight SEC games (Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida), and two of those were the losses. It has been back above it the last two weeks, with Mississippi State its best SEC game. On the other side, only Ohio State and Florida clearly moved the ball on the Texas defense.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)+0.4 · -0.0
Offense EPA/play: +0.4highest of 8, average +0.0
Defense EPA/play allowed: -0.04th highest of 8, average -0.0
+0.4 per play, the best offensive game of the season by a distance.
Offense EPA/play: -0.17th highest of 8, average +0.0
Defense EPA/play allowed: +0.02nd highest of 8, average -0.0
-0.1, the low point, and it was all the ground game: runs lost about half a point each (-0.5) while passes averaged +0.2. Florida (+0.0) and Ohio State are the only offenses to clearly move the ball on Texas.
Texas margin minus the closing line, by game. Above zero means Texas beat the number
Expand
MixedBars above zero are games where Texas beat the betting market's expectation. Texas is 3-5 against the spread. It was favored in all eight and missed the number five straight times from Ohio State to Florida, because the market priced Texas like a top team and the offense did not play like one. It has covered the last two.
More analysis
Bar by bar, with the numbers behind each one.
Texas State: line -29.5, won by 5222.5
Margin vs line: 22.5highest of 8, average -0.2
Favored by 29.5, won by 52.
Ohio State: line -2.5, won by 1-1.5
Margin vs line: -1.54th highest of 8, average -0.2
Favored by 2.5, won by 1. The comeback won the game but not the bet.
UTSA: line -29.5, won by 24-5.5
Margin vs line: -5.56th highest of 8, average -0.2
Favored by 29.5, won by 24. Three field goals and two turnovers on downs left points on the field.
Tennessee: line -5.5, won by 3-2.5
Margin vs line: -2.55th highest of 8, average -0.2
Favored by 5.5, won by 3. A punt-return touchdown and an 80-yard Tennessee drive with 1:22 left made it close.
Oklahoma: line -7.5, won by -3-10.5
Margin vs line: -10.57th highest of 8, average -0.2
Favored by 7.5, lost by 3. Two Oklahoma touchdowns came on returns.
Florida: line -13.5, won by -3-16.5
Margin vs line: -16.5lowest of 8, average -0.2
Favored by 13.5, lost by 3: the biggest miss of the season, 16.5 points.
Ole Miss: line -3, won by 74
Margin vs line: 43rd highest of 8, average -0.2
Favored by 3, won by 7. The first cover since week 1, built on a 24-3 halftime lead.
Mississippi State: line -19.5, won by 288.5
Margin vs line: 8.52nd highest of 8, average -0.2
Favored by 19.5, won by 28. The defense allowed 3 points and scored 7.
Protection
Sacks allowed (bars) and sack rate per dropback (line)
Expand
Sacks allowedSack rate
ConcernMost weeks the protection is fine; three weeks it collapsed. 16 of the 24 sacks came against Tennessee, Florida and Mississippi State, where about 1 in 5 dropbacks ended in a sack. In the other five games it was 8 sacks on 175 dropbacks (4.6%), a healthy rate. Open the Offensive line page for the full unit breakdown.
Line yards per carry (line) and share of runs stopped at or behind the line (bars), garbage time excluded
Expand
StuffedLine yards per carry
ConcernRun blocking is a real weakness by national standards: 2.7 line yards per carry ranks #120 of 138, and about 1 in 5 runs is stopped at or behind the line. Line yards only credit the blockers for the yards they create, so a long run by a back does not flatter them. Best games: UTSA and Oklahoma. Worst: Florida and Tennessee, two of the games where the protection also collapsed.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)28.6% · 2.5
Stuffed: 28.6%highest of 8, average 20.2%
Line yards per carry: 2.56th highest of 8, average 2.7
The worst stuff rate of the season (29%) came in a 59-7 win, so the line struggled even when the score did not show it.
Success rate on carries and targets, all eight games (15+ touches). Ranked within position
Expand
MixedLonger bar = more often the play worked. The receivers are winning more than the running backs. Coleman succeeds on 60% of his targets and Mosley on 54%. In the backfield, Smothers (45%) keeps drives on schedule better than Brown (37%), though Brown has more of the big runs. Names in bold have under 35 touches, so treat their rates as small samples.
More analysis
Every bar, opened up.
Derrek Cooper · Running backs52%
52%Success rate
31Touches
16Successful plays
3Explosives
103Scrimmage yds
3.3Yds per touch
-0.0EPA per play
Why
True freshman used as the short-yardage and closing back.
Six of the team's 24 second-and-short carries.
Back in the run game vs MSU: one carry for 5 yards on the touchdown drive.
The money-down receiver: the 4th-and-6 conversion vs Ohio State and the 62-yard 4th-and-6 catch vs Florida.
18.1% of Texas targets; moves to the slot when Coleman is out.
Took over when Coleman and Wingo went down vs MSU: 4 catches, 98 yards, a 37-yarder and the 42-yard touchdown on 3rd-and-1, his first score of the year.
Havoc plays: tackles for loss, passes defended and interceptions, season totals (3+)
Expand
Good signBiles (16.5) and Simmons (16) are in a class of their own. Simmons (gray) got his in six games before the ankle injury, and nobody else has more than 7. That is why the pass rush dipped to 1 sack vs Florida, where he got hurt, and 0 vs Ole Miss before Biles took it over vs Mississippi State (3 of the 7 sacks).
More analysis
Every bar, opened up.
Rasheem Biles16.5
16.5Havoc plays
9.5TFL
4Sacks
4Passes defended
3INT
7QB hurries
61Tackles
Why
Leads the defense in interceptions (3) and is second in tackles (61) and tackles for loss (9.5).
Vs Ole Miss: two passes defended and the goal-line interception.
Vs MSU: 8 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 TFL and two forced fumbles. His strip-sack of Swann became Watson's 61-yard touchdown.
Cell = success rate. Darker orange = more successful.
MixedDarker orange = more successful. His best throw is not his most common one. Short middle works 57% of the time at 8.7 yards a throw, while short right and short left take 140 of his attempts and work about 40%. Mississippi State was the first game the short middle was featured (4 of 6 for 86 yards). Deep left is a weapon on a small sample: 62% on 13 throws.
More analysis
218 attempts charted by depth and direction. Open a zone for the numbers behind the cell.
Short right41% · 74 attempts
74attempts
30successful
41%success
5.9yards per throw
34%of all attempts
His most common throw. It keeps the ball moving but rarely moves the chains on its own.
Short left39% · 66 attempts
66attempts
26successful
39%success
5.1yards per throw
30%of all attempts
The weakest of the short areas: the second most used, and just under 40% success.
Short middle57% · 49 attempts
49attempts
28successful
57%success
8.7yards per throw
22%of all attempts
His most efficient throw and the least used of the three short areas. Mississippi State was the first game it was featured, and it went 4 of 6 for 86 yards.
Deep left62% · 13 attempts
13attempts
8successful
62%success
22.2yards per throw
6%of all attempts
A real weapon on a small sample, with more than 20 yards a throw.
Deep right25% · 8 attempts
8attempts
2successful
25%success
10.8yards per throw
4%of all attempts
The one deep area that has not worked yet.
Deep middle50% · 8 attempts
8attempts
4successful
50%success
19.3yards per throw
4%of all attempts
Half of these have worked, at about 19 yards a throw.
Texas vs. Texas
Part 1: penalties. Every flag in all eight games, both teams, with the game situation, what the flag erased, and what it cost in expected points. Turnovers and special teams come next.
53–53Accepted flagsTexas vs opponents. Dead even.
502–450Penalty yardsTexas 52 more over 8 games
69.0–43.7Points given away1.3 per Texas flag, 0.8 per opponent flag
17–6Flags that kept a drive alive30 opponent points on those 14 drives
The verdict: half right
Texas does not draw more flags than its opponents. It is 53 apiece. The difference is the price. A Texas flag has cost 1.3 expected points, an opponent flag 0.8, so the same number of penalties has cost Texas about 25 more points over eight games, roughly 3.2 a game.
The timing theory holds. In the second half of one-score games, Texas flags have cost 21.9 points to the opponents' 6.4. The third quarter is the most expensive quarter (21.7 points), the same quarter the offense goes cold.
It is the defense and the kicking game, not the offense. The offense is cleaner than its opponents (24 flags to 31). The defense has 21 flags that cost 40.1 points, double what opposing defenses gave Texas, and 17 of them handed an opponent a first down it had not earned. Opponents scored 2.1 points per drive on those drives, close to twice their season average of 1.2. Special-teams flags cost another 14.3, 8 of it on the block in the back that erased Niblett's punt-return touchdown.
When the offense is flagged, the series usually dies. 17 of 24 series did not pick up another first down, and Texas scored 1.3 points per drive after an offensive flag against 2.4 on the season.
Points given away, by game
Expected points lost to accepted penalties
Expand
TexasOpponents
ConcernTennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Mississippi State are the four games where Texas gave away 12 or more points. Against Oklahoma, a 3-point loss, Texas flags cost 12.0 points to Oklahoma's 3.0. Against Florida, the other 3-point loss, Texas had one penalty, so flags do not explain that one.
More analysis
Every Texas flag behind each bar, costliest first. Points are expected points given away.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)Texas 4 flags, 4.1 points · Opp 3
Actual final margin vs margin with every penalty (both teams) taken out
Expand
Actual marginWithout penalties
ConcernOklahoma flips from a 3-point loss to about a 6-point win once both teams' penalties come out. Tennessee goes from a 3-point escape to about two scores. Ohio State and Florida go the other way: opponent flags helped Texas more than its own hurt, and Ohio State would have been about a 2-point loss.
More analysis
What each game looks like with every penalty, on both sides, taken out.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)+52 actual · +54.6 without flags
+52Actual margin
+54.6Without penalties
4.1Texas gave away (4 flags)
1.5Opponent gave away (3)
3.0 pts Pass Interference, K. Phillips Texas State · Q1 9:37 · 3rd & 11 · Texas 6-0 · kept a drive alive
0.4 pts Encroachment, N. Townsend Texas State · Q3 11:39 · 2nd & 10 · Texas 35-7
0.4 pts False Start, J. Chatman Texas State · Q4 7:32 · 1st & 10 · Texas 49-7
0.2 pts Holding, E. Mosley V Texas State · Q2 2:26 · 1st & 10 · Texas 28-7
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)+1 actual · -1.9 without flags
+1Actual margin
-1.9Without penalties
1.3Texas gave away (2 flags)
4.2Opponent gave away (4)
1.0 pts Pass Interference, K. Phillips Ohio State · Q4 6:20 · 1st & 10 · Texas 17-23 · kept a drive alive
0.4 pts False Start, R. Wingo Ohio State · Q2 1:04 · 3rd & 10 · Texas 3-13
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)+24 actual · +18.7 without flags
ConcernThe third quarter is the costliest: 15 Texas flags for 21.7 points, more than twice what opponents gave back in the third. Eight of the 15 came against Oklahoma and Ole Miss, while Texas was trying to protect second-half leads of 17-10 and 24-3.
More analysis
Every Texas flag behind each bar, costliest first. Points are expected points given away.
MixedThe offense (24 flags) is cleaner than opposing offenses (31). The defense is the leak: 21 flags for 40.1 points. Special teams: 8 flags for 14.3 points.
More analysis
Every Texas flag behind each bar, costliest first. Points are expected points given away.
8.0 pts Illegal Block in Back, R. Andersen Mississippi State · Q2 3:09 · Punt · Texas 10-0
1.4 pts Illegal Block in Back, L. Jackson UTSA · Q2 10:16 · Punt · Texas 17-3
1.1 pts Personal Foul, K. Okpala Ole Miss · Q4 8:04 · Kickoff · Texas 31-24
1.0 pts Face Mask, D. Williams Jr. UTSA · Q3 13:46 · Punt · Texas 20-3
1.0 pts Unsportsmanlike Conduct, K. Okpala Ole Miss · Q3 15:00 · Kickoff · Texas 24-3
0.8 pts Holding, K. Brown UTSA · Q3 12:45 · Kickoff · Texas 20-6
0.7 pts Illegal Block in Back Tennessee · Q2 10:28 · Punt · Texas 10-3
0.4 pts Illegal Formation, R. Biles Tennessee · Q1 5:55 · Punt · Texas 7-3
What kind of flag
Points given away by foul type
Expand
TexasOpponents
MixedTexas is not undisciplined before the snap (15 pre-snap flags to the opponents' 24). The damage is after the snap: 14 personal fouls (roughing, face masks, unsportsmanlike) for 24.1 points and 8 pass interference calls for 16 points.
More analysis
Every Texas flag behind each bar, costliest first. Points are expected points given away.
Texas players by points given away, all eight games
Expand
ConcernBar = points given away, then number of flags. Orange = defense, gray = offense, tan = special teams. Kade Phillips has four flags, all pass interference, three of them on third down or inside the 15. Lance Jackson has four spread across defense and special teams. One of Rasheem Biles' two flags erased an interception.
More analysis
Every bar, opened up.
K. Phillips8.1 · 4
8.1Points given away
4Flags
39Yards
Pass Interference ×4Fouls
3.0 pts Pass Interference, K. Phillips Texas State · Q1 9:37 · 3rd & 11 · Texas 6-0 · kept a drive alive
Every number on this page is in expected points: how much a flag changed what that possession was likely to be worth.
1
Every spot has a value
From thousands of plays we know what each down, distance and yard line is usually worth by the next score. Backed up at your own goal line is worth a little less than zero. First and goal is worth close to a touchdown.
Own goal lineMidfieldTheir goal line
2
Picture the play with no flag
We take the play exactly as it happened, as if the flag never flew: the completion, the sack, the incomplete pass or the touchdown. A touchdown counts as 7.
3
The gap is the cost
We compare that with where the flag actually left things. The difference is the points it gave away. It can be more than 7 when a flag erases a touchdown and leaves you deep in your own end.
Worked example: the block in the back on Niblett's return
Mississippi State, second quarter. Niblett's 84-yard punt return was called back and Texas took over at its own 8.
-10+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8
7.95 points given away
-0.95With the flag: 1st and 10 at the Texas 8
7.0Without it: touchdown
7 for the touchdown, plus about 1 more because starting at your own 8 is worth less than nothing: from there the next score is a little more likely to be the other team's. The values come from a model fit on 2,055 plays from 15 games (Texas and Mississippi State this season). They are averages, so read them as size and direction, not a promise. One simplification: a touchdown counts as a flat 7, without subtracting the kickoff that follows.
The 10 costliest Texas flags
Ranked by expected points given away compared with the play standing as it happened without the flag.
8.0points
Wk 8 vs Mississippi State · Q2 3:09 · Texas 10-0 · Punt
Illegal Block in Back · #35 R. Andersen
Wiped out Ryan Niblett's 84-yard punt-return touchdown. Texas started at its own 8, an illegal formation pushed it to the 4, and the drive ended in a punt.
Without the flag: touchdown, 7.0. With it: -0.9 for the spot Texas got. Cost: 7 for the touchdown plus 0.9 for the field position.
Return TD erased
4.0points
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma · Q3 2:13 · Texas 17-10 · 1st & 10 at Texas 36
Roughing The Passer · #3 R. Biles
Erased Bo Mascoe's interception at the Texas 14. Oklahoma kept the ball at the Texas 21 and tied the game on that drive after a second flag.
OU TD, 17-17
3.4points
Wk 4 at Tennessee · Q4 0:26 · Texas 20-17 · 3rd & 19 at TENN 40
Face Mask · #19 Z. Umeozulu
Texas up 20-17 with 26 seconds left. A 6-yard sack on 3rd-and-19 would have left 4th-and-25 from the Tennessee 34. The face mask gave Tennessee a 1st down at the Texas 45 instead.
Tennessee's possession was worth -0.6 without the flag and +2.7 with it. Cost: 3.4 points.
Texas held on, 20-17
3.0points
Wk 1 vs Texas State · Q1 9:37 · Texas 6-0 · 3rd & 11 at TXST 24
Pass Interference · #8 K. Phillips
Incomplete on 3rd-and-11 at the Texas State 24 would have forced a punt. The flag gave a 1st down near midfield.
Texas State's possession was worth -1.4 without the flag and +1.6 with it. Cost: 3.0 points.
Drive ended without points
3.0points
Wk 4 at Tennessee · Q2 5:18 · Texas 10-3 · 3rd & 13 at TENN 28
Unsportsmanlike Conduct · #1 C. Simmons
Simmons sacked the quarterback for a 16-yard loss on 3rd-and-13, then drew the unsportsmanlike flag. A punt from the 12 became a 1st down at the 27.
Tennessee's possession was worth -2.2 without the flag and +0.7 with it. Cost: 3.0 points.
Drive ended without points
2.7points
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma · Q4 15:00 · Texas 17-10 · 3rd & 9 at Texas 9
Pass Interference · #8 K. Phillips
3rd-and-9 from the Texas 9, incomplete. Oklahoma would have kicked a field goal. The flag put the ball at the 2 and Oklahoma scored the tying touchdown.
Oklahoma's possession was worth +2.8 without the flag and +5.5 with it. Cost: 2.7 points.
OU TD, 17-17
2.6points
Wk 3 vs UTSA · Q1 10:34 · Texas 7-0 · 2nd & 13 at Texas 44
Horse Collar Tackle · #99 R. Wesley
Turned a 1-yard loss on 2nd-and-13 into a 1st down at the Texas 29.
UTSA's possession was worth +1.2 without the flag and +3.7 with it. Cost: 2.5 points.
UTSA FG
2.6points
Wk 8 vs Mississippi State · Q3 5:35 · Texas 24-3 · 1st & 10 at MSST 25
Face Mask · #28 J. Cryer
On Cryer's own 11-yard sack. Instead of 2nd-and-21 at its 14, Mississippi State had a 1st down at its 40.
Mississippi State's possession was worth -0.8 without the flag and +1.7 with it. Cost: 2.5 points.
Drive ended without points
2.3points
Wk 4 at Tennessee · Q3 14:50 · Texas 10-3 · 2nd & 10 at TENN 17
Pass Interference · #5 B. Mascoe
Incomplete on 2nd-and-10 from the Tennessee 17 became a 1st down at the 32, on the first possession of the second half.
Tennessee's possession was worth -1.2 without the flag and +1.1 with it. Cost: 2.3 points.
Drive ended without points
2.2points
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss · Q3 10:52 · Texas 24-10 · 2nd & 7 at MISS 23
Pass Interference · #4 J. McDonald
First of three Texas defensive flags on one Ole Miss drive (pass interference, roughing the passer, pass interference to the 2). Texas led 24-10.
Ole Miss's possession was worth -0.6 without the flag and +1.5 with it. Cost: 2.2 points.
Ole Miss TD, 24-17
Every Texas penalty, game by game
Game
Time
Score
Situation
Unit
Foul
Player
Yds
Pts
After
Wk 1 vs Texas State
Q1 9:37
6-0
3rd & 11 at TXST 24
Defense
Pass Interference
K. Phillips
15
3.0
Kept drive alive
Wk 1 vs Texas State
Q2 2:26
28-7
1st & 10 at Texas 21
Offense
Holding
E. Mosley V
10
0.2
Recovered
Wk 1 vs Texas State
Q3 11:39
35-7
2nd & 10 at TXST 42
Offense
Encroachment
N. Townsend
5
0.4
Recovered
Wk 1 vs Texas State
Q4 7:32
49-7
1st & 10 at TXST 35
Offense
False Start
J. Chatman
5
0.4
Series died
Wk 2 vs Ohio State
Q2 1:04
3-13
3rd & 10 at midfield
Offense
False Start
R. Wingo
5
0.4
Series died
Wk 2 vs Ohio State
Q4 6:20
17-23
1st & 10 at OSU 49
Defense
Pass Interference
K. Phillips
7
1.0
Kept drive alive
Wk 3 vs UTSA
Q1 14:59
0-0
1st & 10 at UTSA 25
Defense
Unsportsmanlike Conduct
15
0.9
Wk 3 vs UTSA
Q1 10:34
7-0
2nd & 13 at Texas 44
Defense
Horse Collar Tackle
R. Wesley
15
2.6
Kept drive alive
Wk 3 vs UTSA
Q1 3:26
10-3
1st & 10 at UTSA 36
Offense
Personal Foul
C. Robertson
15
0.9
Series died
Wk 3 vs UTSA
Q2 10:16
17-3
Punt
Special teams
Illegal Block in Back
L. Jackson
10
1.4
Wk 3 vs UTSA
Q3 13:57
20-3
3rd & 19 at Texas 16
Offense
Illegal Forward Pass
A. Manning
5
0.4
Recovered
Wk 3 vs UTSA
Q3 13:46
20-3
Punt
Special teams
Face Mask
D. Williams Jr.
15
1.0
Wk 3 vs UTSA
Q3 12:45
20-6
Kickoff
Special teams
Holding
K. Brown
8
0.8
Wk 3 vs UTSA
Q4 0:37
30-6
3rd & 1 at UTSA 26
Offense
False Start
J. Christian
5
1.2
Series died
Wk 4 at Tennessee
Q1 10:57
7-0
1st & 10 at TENN 25
Defense
Roughing The Passer
L. Jackson
15
1.1
Wk 4 at Tennessee
Q1 10:12
7-0
2nd & 6 at Texas 45
Defense
Pass Interference
B. Mascoe
15
1.9
Kept drive alive
Wk 4 at Tennessee
Q1 6:15
7-3
3rd & 12 at Texas 24
Offense
Illegal Forward Pass
A. Manning
5
0.4
Series died
Wk 4 at Tennessee
Q1 5:55
7-3
Punt
Special teams
Illegal Formation
R. Biles
5
0.4
Wk 4 at Tennessee
Q2 10:28
10-3
Punt
Special teams
Illegal Block in Back
10
0.7
Wk 4 at Tennessee
Q2 5:18
10-3
3rd & 13 at TENN 28
Defense
Unsportsmanlike Conduct
C. Simmons
15
3.0
Kept drive alive
Wk 4 at Tennessee
Q2 1:18
10-3
2nd & 15 at Texas 29
Offense
Illegal Forward Pass
A. Manning
5
0.6
Series died
Wk 4 at Tennessee
Q3 14:50
10-3
2nd & 10 at TENN 17
Defense
Pass Interference
B. Mascoe
15
2.3
Kept drive alive
Wk 4 at Tennessee
Q3 9:29
10-10
3rd & 2 at TENN 22
Offense
Delay Of Game
5
1.2
Series died
Wk 4 at Tennessee
Q4 14:59
13-10
3rd & 7 at Texas 49
Offense
Holding
C. Robertson
10
0.2
Series died
Wk 4 at Tennessee
Q4 0:26
20-17
3rd & 19 at TENN 40
Defense
Face Mask
Z. Umeozulu
15
3.4
Kept drive alive
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma
Q1 9:07
0-0
4th & 3 at Texas 43
Offense
Delay Of Game
5
0.4
Series died
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma
Q1 4:21
7-0
3rd & 5 at Texas 33
Offense
False Start
M. Siani
5
0.9
Series died
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma
Q3 9:36
17-10
2nd & 6 at OU 24
Defense
Offside
L. Jackson
4
0.8
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma
Q3 9:01
17-10
2nd & 2 at OU 38
Defense
Offside
C. Simmons
5
2.0
Kept drive alive
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma
Q3 2:13
17-10
1st & 10 at Texas 36
Defense
Roughing The Passer
R. Biles
15
4.0
Kept drive alive
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma
Q4 15:00
17-10
3rd & 9 at Texas 9
Defense
Pass Interference
K. Phillips
7
2.7
Kept drive alive
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma
Q4 14:48
17-17
2nd & 10 at Texas 25
Offense
Holding
M. Siani
10
0.2
Series died
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma
Q4 11:22
17-17
2nd & 3 at Texas 30
Offense
Holding
E. Winston
10
1.0
Recovered
Wk 6 vs Florida
Q1 0:58
10-0
2nd & 6 at Texas 45
Defense
Block Below Waist
G. Littleton
15
1.0
Kept drive alive
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q1 6:00
3-3
1st & 10 at Texas 25
Offense
Holding
R. Wingo
10
1.1
Series died
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q1 2:14
3-3
1st & 10 at Texas 40
Offense
Holding
M. Masunas
10
0.4
Recovered
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q2 13:54
10-3
3rd & 12 at Texas 37
Offense
False Start
B. Baker
5
0.5
Recovered
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q2 6:45
24-3
3rd & 4 at Texas 31
Offense
False Start
C. Robertson
5
0.7
Series died
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q2 2:00
24-3
2nd & 2 at Texas 19
Defense
Unnecessary Roughness
I. Geffrard
0
0.0
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q2 2:00
24-3
2nd & 2 at Texas 19
Defense
Unnecessary Roughness
L. Jackson
15
1.5
Kept drive alive
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q2 1:38
24-3
1st & 10 at Texas 3
Offense
Holding
M. Masunas
1
1.1
Series died
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q3 15:00
24-3
Kickoff
Special teams
Unsportsmanlike Conduct
K. Okpala
13
1.0
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q3 10:52
24-10
2nd & 7 at MISS 23
Defense
Pass Interference
J. McDonald
15
2.2
Kept drive alive
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q3 9:22
24-10
2nd & 7 at Texas 45
Defense
Roughing The Passer
J. Terry
15
1.0
Kept drive alive
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q3 7:37
24-10
1st & 10 at Texas 12
Defense
Pass Interference
K. Phillips
10
1.3
Kept drive alive
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q3 0:52
24-17
3rd & 13 at Texas 30
Offense
False Start
B. Baker
5
0.5
Series died
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q4 14:04
24-17
1st & 10 at Texas 42
Defense
Pass Interference
J. McDonald
15
1.4
Kept drive alive
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss
Q4 8:04
31-24
Kickoff
Special teams
Personal Foul
K. Okpala
15
1.1
Wk 8 vs Mississippi State
Q2 10:49
7-0
1st & 10 at Texas 30
Offense
Holding
M. Siani
10
0.7
Recovered
Wk 8 vs Mississippi State
Q2 6:42
7-0
3rd & 7 at MSST 31
Offense
False Start
A. Cojoe
5
0.6
Series died
Wk 8 vs Mississippi State
Q2 3:09
10-0
Punt
Special teams
Illegal Block in Back
R. Andersen
8
8.0
Wk 8 vs Mississippi State
Q2 2:49
10-0
1st & 10 at Texas 8
Offense
Illegal Formation
4
0.4
Series died
Wk 8 vs Mississippi State
Q3 5:35
24-3
1st & 10 at MSST 25
Defense
Face Mask
J. Cryer
15
2.6
Kept drive alive
How this is measured: expected points (EP) value every down, distance and yard line by the next score that tends to follow, using a model fit on 2,055 plays from 15 games (Texas and Mississippi State this season). A flag's cost is the EP after the flag minus the EP if the play had stood as it happened, or the pre-snap situation for a dead-ball foul. Positive means it hurt the team that drew it. "Kept a drive alive" means the flag produced a first down the play itself did not. Accepted penalties reconcile exactly to the official box score for Texas (53 for 502); one 10-yard UTSA penalty in the box score is missing from the play-by-play. Expected points are an average, not a certainty, so read the hypothetical margins as direction and size, not a promise.
Players
Open a player for production by game, why it is happening, and what the booths and press are saying about him.
HomerProof is an independent, fan-built analytics hub for Texas football. Every snap of the season, charted and explained, updated each week.
The numbers we use
Success rate
Did the play keep the offense on schedule? A play counts as a success if it gains 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd and 4th. Touchdowns always count; turnovers never do. About 40 to 45% is good in the SEC.
EPA (expected points added)
Every down, distance and spot on the field has an expected point value. EPA is how much a play changed it. A 6-yard gain on 3rd-and-5 adds a lot; the same 6 yards on 3rd-and-8 loses value. Above zero is a good play; +0.1 per play over a season is a strong offense.
SP+
An opponent-adjusted team rating built from efficiency and explosiveness, created by Bill Connelly. We show the national rank.
National rank
Where Texas or an opponent sits among FBS teams with full data, garbage time excluded.
Against the spread
Whether Texas beat the closing betting line: its winning margin minus the points it was favored by.
Explosive play
A run of 10 or more yards or a completion of 15 or more.
Stuffed
A running back carry that gains zero yards or loses yardage.
Line yards
A way to credit the offensive line for a run without letting a long run by the back inflate it. The line gets full credit for the first 4 yards, half credit for yards 5 to 10, none past that, and is charged 120% for losses. Around 2.8 per carry is solid.
Sack rate
Sacks divided by dropbacks (pass attempts plus sacks). Under 6% is good; near 20% means the quarterback is under siege.
Havoc
The plays that wreck a drive: tackles for loss, passes defended, interceptions and forced fumbles. For players we count them; for teams it is a rate, the share of snaps with one.
Target share
The share of all Texas pass targets that went to a player.
Expected points
What a given down, distance and spot on the field is usually worth in points. We use it to price penalties: a flag's cost is the drop in expected points it caused. The Discipline page has a worked example.
Garbage time
Snaps after the game is decided (a lead over 28 in the second quarter, 24 in the third, 21 in the fourth). Charts use every snap; some tables leave these out, so a few rates differ slightly.
Where it comes from
Public sources: play-by-play and box scores for every game, advanced team stats, national ranks and betting lines, plus postgame reporting for lineup notes. The analysis and every number we derive from that data are our own.
What it is not
We don't have snap counts, personnel groupings or player grades, which come from film charting. Hurries are only the ones the stadium stat crew logged. Read the numbers as a strong guide, not the final word.
Independent
An independent fan project. Not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to the University of Texas, Texas Athletics, any conference, data provider or broadcaster. Team names are used only to identify the games.
The deep ball is the best thing he does: 44% completions and 17.1 yards per attempt on 25 deep throws.
Short middle throws are his most efficient read (65% success, 9.8 per attempt) and the least called.
Volume hurts him. In games where he throws 30+ times the success rate falls to 30 to 41%.
His legs are a weapon: 56% success and 6.2 yards per carry as a runner outside garbage time, best on the team.
Five of his seven interceptions came with the game tied or within one score.
Vs Mississippi State: 16 of 20, 220 yards, 3 TD, no picks, but 5 sacks and a lost strip-sack fumble on 3rd-and-16 that set up MSU's only points.
Short middle went 4 of 6 for 86 yards vs MSU, the game plan's completion point, and it was used on 29% of throws (season about 20%).
Passing by game
Yards (bars) and dropback success rate (line)
Expand
MixedHe is at his best when he throws less. In his 4 games with fewer than 30 attempts, 50 to 65% of his dropbacks were successful. In the 4 games with 30 or more, that fell to 30 to 41%. The more the offense leans on his arm, the less each throw produces, so a balanced game plan suits him.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)305 · 65.4%
Pass yds: 305highest of 8, average 215.9
Success rate: 65.4%highest of 8, average 46.8%
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)195 · 40.5%
Pass yds: 1956th highest of 8, average 215.9
Success rate: 40.5%5th highest of 8, average 46.8%
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)161 · 37.1%
Pass yds: 161lowest of 8, average 215.9
Success rate: 37.1%7th highest of 8, average 46.8%
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)201 · 57.9%
Pass yds: 2015th highest of 8, average 215.9
Success rate: 57.9%2nd highest of 8, average 46.8%
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)260 · 38.7%
Pass yds: 2602nd highest of 8, average 215.9
Success rate: 38.7%6th highest of 8, average 46.8%
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)173 · 50%
Pass yds: 1737th highest of 8, average 215.9
Success rate: 50%4th highest of 8, average 46.8%
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)212 · 30%
Pass yds: 2124th highest of 8, average 215.9
Success rate: 30%lowest of 8, average 46.8%
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)220 · 55%
Pass yds: 2203rd highest of 8, average 215.9
Success rate: 55%3rd highest of 8, average 46.8%
Attempts and sacks
Pass attempts and sacks taken by game
Expand
ConcernThe sacks come in bunches. 16 of his 24 came in 3 games (Tennessee, Florida and Mississippi State). In the other 5 he went down 8 times on 175 dropbacks (4.6%), a healthy rate. So it is a few defenses getting home rather than a weekly leak, but each of those hits on him is a risk.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)27 · 1
Attempts: 275th highest of 8, average 27
Sacks: 17th highest of 8, average 3
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)37 · 2
Attempts: 37highest of 8, average 27
Sacks: 24th highest of 8, average 3
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)32 · 1
Attempts: 322nd highest of 8, average 27
Sacks: 17th highest of 8, average 3
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)19 · 6
Attempts: 19lowest of 8, average 27
Sacks: 6highest of 8, average 3
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)31 · 2
Attempts: 313rd highest of 8, average 27
Sacks: 24th highest of 8, average 3
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)20 · 5
Attempts: 206th highest of 8, average 27
Sacks: 52nd highest of 8, average 3
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)30 · 2
Attempts: 304th highest of 8, average 27
Sacks: 24th highest of 8, average 3
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)20 · 5
Attempts: 206th highest of 8, average 27
Sacks: 52nd highest of 8, average 3
Pass map
Success by depth and direction
Expand
leftmiddlerightdeep
62%13 att22.2 y/a
50%8 att19.3 y/a
25%8 att10.8 y/a
short
39%66 att5.1 y/a
57%49 att8.7 y/a
41%74 att5.9 y/a
Cell = success rate. Darker orange = more successful.
MixedShort middle is where he wins most (57% success, 8.7 yards per throw). Short right gets the most volume (74 throws) and works 41% of the time. Short left is the weak spot: 39% on 66. Deep left is a weapon on a small sample: 62% on 13 at 22.2 yards per throw.
More analysis
218 attempts charted by depth and direction. Open a zone for the numbers behind the cell.
Short right41% · 74 attempts
74attempts
30successful
41%success
5.9yards per throw
34%of all attempts
Short left39% · 66 attempts
66attempts
26successful
39%success
5.1yards per throw
30%of all attempts
Short middle57% · 49 attempts
49attempts
28successful
57%success
8.7yards per throw
22%of all attempts
Deep left62% · 13 attempts
13attempts
8successful
62%success
22.2yards per throw
6%of all attempts
The most successful area with at least five attempts.
Deep right25% · 8 attempts
8attempts
2successful
25%success
10.8yards per throw
4%of all attempts
The least successful area with at least five attempts.
The explosive back: 11 of the team's 19 explosive runs.
Boom or bust. Success rate sits near 39% with a 15% stuff rate, so drives can stall behind him.
Bell cow when Smothers is out: 23 carries for 157 yards against Ole Miss.
As a runner he got nothing vs MSU (8 carries, 30 yards), but the screen worked: a 22-yard misdirection screen and the 4-yard touchdown catch.
Through seven games he was a poor checkdown target (2.2 yards per target). Designed screens are a different story, so use him on those, not as a dump-off.
Production by game
Scrimmage yards (bars) and success rate (line)
Expand
MixedBoom or bust. Only 37% of his touches are successful (below the 43% for all Texas backs), so drives can stall behind him. But 13% go for big plays, the most of any Texas back. Best game: Ole Miss, 157 scrimmage yards.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)45 · 33.3%
Scrimmage yds: 457th highest of 8, average 63.3
Success rate: 33.3%6th highest of 8, average 36.3%
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)55 · 37.5%
Scrimmage yds: 554th highest of 8, average 63.3
Success rate: 37.5%4th highest of 8, average 36.3%
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)51 · 30.8%
Scrimmage yds: 515th highest of 8, average 63.3
Success rate: 30.8%lowest of 8, average 36.3%
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)75 · 38.9%
Scrimmage yds: 752nd highest of 8, average 63.3
Success rate: 38.9%3rd highest of 8, average 36.3%
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)20 · 33.3%
Scrimmage yds: 20lowest of 8, average 63.3
Success rate: 33.3%6th highest of 8, average 36.3%
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)47 · 37.5%
Scrimmage yds: 476th highest of 8, average 63.3
Success rate: 37.5%4th highest of 8, average 36.3%
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)157 · 39.1%
Scrimmage yds: 157highest of 8, average 63.3
Success rate: 39.1%2nd highest of 8, average 36.3%
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)56 · 40%
Scrimmage yds: 563rd highest of 8, average 63.3
Success rate: 40%highest of 8, average 36.3%
Recent form
Yards per carry (bars) and explosive plays, runs and catches (line), by game
Expand
Good signHe has become the big-play back. 7 explosive plays in the last 3 games, as many as the 7 in the 5 before, and 6.0 yards a carry, up from 4.1. Ole Miss (23 carries, 157 yards) accounts for 67% of those yards, so one more strong game would confirm it.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)3.1 · 2
Yards per carry: 3.1lowest of 8, average 4.7
Explosive plays: 22nd highest of 8, average 1.8
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)5.4 · 2
Yards per carry: 5.43rd highest of 8, average 4.7
Explosive plays: 22nd highest of 8, average 1.8
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)4.1 · 1
Yards per carry: 4.15th highest of 8, average 4.7
Explosive plays: 16th highest of 8, average 1.8
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)3.9 · 2
Yards per carry: 3.96th highest of 8, average 4.7
Explosive plays: 22nd highest of 8, average 1.8
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)4.4 · 0
Yards per carry: 4.44th highest of 8, average 4.7
Explosive plays: 0lowest of 8, average 1.8
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)5.9 · 1
Yards per carry: 5.92nd highest of 8, average 4.7
Explosive plays: 16th highest of 8, average 1.8
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)6.8 · 4
Yards per carry: 6.8highest of 8, average 4.7
Explosive plays: 4highest of 8, average 1.8
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)3.8 · 2
Yards per carry: 3.87th highest of 8, average 4.7
Explosive plays: 22nd highest of 8, average 1.8
Run direction
Success rate and yards per carry by direction
Expand
ConcernSend him to the right. His runs to the right succeed 52% of the time at 6.4 yards a carry, against 26% to the left. The right side is also where the line blocks best. Yet 52% of his carries go up the middle, where he succeeds 34%.
The down-and-distance back: higher success rate (46%) than Brown with fewer explosives.
Two 1-yard touchdowns closed out the Ohio State comeback.
Reliable outlet: 10 catches on 11 targets.
Returned vs MSU but was stopped on all four carries, including a 3-yard loss to the 1, before going to the medical tent.
Production by game
Scrimmage yards (bars) and success rate (line)
Expand
Good signHe keeps the offense on schedule. 45% of his touches are successful, above the 43% for all Texas backs, though only 10% turn into big plays. Best game: Texas State, 98 scrimmage yards. He was stopped on all 4 touches vs Mississippi State.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)98 · 50%
Scrimmage yds: 98highest of 8, average 45.3
Success rate: 50%2nd highest of 6, average 39.3%
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)89 · 50%
Scrimmage yds: 892nd highest of 8, average 45.3
Success rate: 50%2nd highest of 6, average 39.3%
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)65 · 53.8%
Scrimmage yds: 653rd highest of 8, average 45.3
Success rate: 53.8%highest of 6, average 39.3%
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)0
Scrimmage yds: 06th highest of 8, average 45.3
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)58 · 35.7%
Scrimmage yds: 584th highest of 8, average 45.3
Success rate: 35.7%5th highest of 6, average 39.3%
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)58 · 46.2%
Scrimmage yds: 584th highest of 8, average 45.3
Success rate: 46.2%4th highest of 6, average 39.3%
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)0
Scrimmage yds: 06th highest of 8, average 45.3
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)-6 · 0%
Scrimmage yds: -6lowest of 8, average 45.3
Success rate: 0%lowest of 6, average 39.3%
Run direction
Success rate and yards per carry by direction
Expand
Good signHis runs to the left work best (50%, 4.7 yards a carry). Runs to the right are his weak side at 31%.
Emerging change-up: 8 carries, 41 yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss.
Back-to-back 12 and 19 yard runs set up the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter vs Ole Miss.
Opened the clinching fourth-quarter drive vs MSU with three straight carries for 15 yards. The best success rate of the healthy backs (50%).
Production by game
Scrimmage yards (bars) and success rate (line)
Expand
Small samplePromising on limited work. 50% of his 22 touches were successful, above the 43% for all Texas backs. Best game: Ole Miss, 41 scrimmage yards.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)8 · 33.3%
Scrimmage yds: 84th highest of 8, average 13
Success rate: 33.3%lowest of 4, average 47.6%
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)0
Scrimmage yds: 05th highest of 8, average 13
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)39 · 57.1%
Scrimmage yds: 392nd highest of 8, average 13
Success rate: 57.1%highest of 4, average 47.6%
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)0
Scrimmage yds: 05th highest of 8, average 13
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)0
Scrimmage yds: 05th highest of 8, average 13
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)0
Scrimmage yds: 05th highest of 8, average 13
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)41 · 50%
Scrimmage yds: 41highest of 8, average 13
Success rate: 50%2nd highest of 4, average 47.6%
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)16 · 50%
Scrimmage yds: 163rd highest of 8, average 13
Success rate: 50%2nd highest of 4, average 47.6%
Run direction
Success rate and yards per carry by direction
Expand
Small sampleOnly 22 carries, so read this lightly. So far his runs to the left have worked best (60%) and runs up the middle the least (46%).
The volume target: 4 to 9 targets every game, 24.7% of all Texas targets.
Explosive engine: 13 explosive plays, including the 50-yard score vs Ole Miss.
Drew 9 of 28 targets vs Ole Miss, his most of the year. Moves to X if Coleman sits.
Quiet vs MSU: 3 catches for 14 yards on 6 targets before leaving the game.
Production by game
Receiving yards (bars) and targets (line)
Expand
Good signThe go-to target. 53 targets, 8.9 yards per target and 49% success (all Texas receivers and tight ends: 51%). Best game: Texas State (7 catches, 121 yards).
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)121 · 8
Rec yds: 121highest of 8, average 58.8
Targets: 82nd highest of 8, average 6.6
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)22 · 6
Rec yds: 226th highest of 8, average 58.8
Targets: 64th highest of 8, average 6.6
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)22 · 6
Rec yds: 226th highest of 8, average 58.8
Targets: 64th highest of 8, average 6.6
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)74 · 6
Rec yds: 743rd highest of 8, average 58.8
Targets: 64th highest of 8, average 6.6
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)57 · 4
Rec yds: 574th highest of 8, average 58.8
Targets: 4lowest of 8, average 6.6
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)49 · 8
Rec yds: 495th highest of 8, average 58.8
Targets: 82nd highest of 8, average 6.6
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)111 · 9
Rec yds: 1112nd highest of 8, average 58.8
Targets: 9highest of 8, average 6.6
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)14 · 6
Rec yds: 14lowest of 8, average 58.8
Targets: 64th highest of 8, average 6.6
Target map
Success by depth and direction
Expand
leftmiddlerightdeep
40%5 tgt13.2 y/a
50%2 tgt25 y/a
0%1 tgt0 y/a
short
29%14 tgt3.1 y/a
69%13 tgt10.2 y/a
56%18 tgt9.9 y/a
Cell = success rate. Darker orange = more successful.
Good signShort middle is where he wins most (69% success, 10.2 yards per target). Short right gets the most volume (18 targets) and works 56% of the time. Short left is the weak spot: 29% on 14.
More analysis
53 targets charted by depth and direction. Open a zone for the numbers behind the cell.
Short right56% · 18 targets
18targets
10successful
56%success
9.9yards per target
34%of all targets
Short left29% · 14 targets
14targets
4successful
29%success
3.1yards per target
26%of all targets
The least successful area with at least five targets.
Short middle69% · 13 targets
13targets
9successful
69%success
10.2yards per target
25%of all targets
The most successful area with at least five targets.
Deep left40% · 5 targets
5targets
2successful
40%success
13.2yards per target
9%of all targets
Deep middle50% · 2 targets
2targets
1successful
50%success
25yards per target
4%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
Deep right0% · 1 targets
1targets
0successful
0%success
0yards per target
2%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
Most efficient wideout and the end-zone target: 6 touchdowns on 21 catches.
Targets swing hard week to week, from 2 to 10.
Two costly drops so far, including one vs Ole Miss.
Back from the shoulder vs MSU: a 47-yard catch on 3rd-and-9 and the 14-yard touchdown on the opening drive, then out in the first quarter.
Production by game
Receiving yards (bars) and targets (line)
Expand
Good signThe most efficient receiver on the team. 35 targets, 11.7 yards per target and 60% success (all Texas receivers and tight ends: 51%). His targets swing a lot week to week (2 to 8). Best game: Oklahoma (5 catches, 110 yards).
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)70 · 3
Rec yds: 702nd highest of 8, average 51.1
Targets: 35th highest of 8, average 4.4
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)49 · 5
Rec yds: 495th highest of 8, average 51.1
Targets: 53rd highest of 8, average 4.4
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)59 · 8
Rec yds: 594th highest of 8, average 51.1
Targets: 8highest of 8, average 4.4
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)30 · 2
Rec yds: 306th highest of 8, average 51.1
Targets: 27th highest of 8, average 4.4
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)110 · 8
Rec yds: 110highest of 8, average 51.1
Targets: 8highest of 8, average 4.4
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)18 · 4
Rec yds: 187th highest of 8, average 51.1
Targets: 44th highest of 8, average 4.4
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)12 · 3
Rec yds: 12lowest of 8, average 51.1
Targets: 35th highest of 8, average 4.4
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)61 · 2
Rec yds: 613rd highest of 8, average 51.1
Targets: 27th highest of 8, average 4.4
Target map
Success by depth and direction
Expand
leftmiddlerightdeep
67%3 tgt24 y/a
67%3 tgt20.3 y/a
33%3 tgt14.7 y/a
short
55%11 tgt5.1 y/a
89%9 tgt16.8 y/a
33%6 tgt3.2 y/a
Cell = success rate. Darker orange = more successful.
Good signShort middle is where he wins most (89% success, 16.8 yards per target). Short left gets the most volume (11 targets) and works 55% of the time. Short right is the weak spot: 33% on 6.
More analysis
35 targets charted by depth and direction. Open a zone for the numbers behind the cell.
Short left55% · 11 targets
11targets
6successful
55%success
5.1yards per target
31%of all targets
Short middle89% · 9 targets
9targets
8successful
89%success
16.8yards per target
26%of all targets
The most successful area with at least five targets.
Short right33% · 6 targets
6targets
2successful
33%success
3.2yards per target
17%of all targets
The least successful area with at least five targets.
Deep right33% · 3 targets
3targets
1successful
33%success
14.7yards per target
9%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
Deep middle67% · 3 targets
3targets
2successful
67%success
20.3yards per target
9%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
Deep left67% · 3 targets
3targets
2successful
67%success
24yards per target
9%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
The money-down receiver: the 4th-and-6 conversion vs Ohio State and the 62-yard 4th-and-6 catch vs Florida.
18.1% of Texas targets; moves to the slot when Coleman is out.
Took over when Coleman and Wingo went down vs MSU: 4 catches, 98 yards, a 37-yarder and the 42-yard touchdown on 3rd-and-1, his first score of the year.
Production by game
Receiving yards (bars) and targets (line)
Expand
Good signReliable when the ball comes his way. 39 targets, 10.7 yards per target and 54% success (all Texas receivers and tight ends: 51%). His targets swing a lot week to week (1 to 7). Best game: Mississippi State (4 catches, 98 yards).
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)37 · 6
Rec yds: 376th highest of 8, average 52.4
Targets: 64th highest of 8, average 4.9
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)65 · 7
Rec yds: 653rd highest of 8, average 52.4
Targets: 7highest of 8, average 4.9
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)28 · 7
Rec yds: 28lowest of 8, average 52.4
Targets: 7highest of 8, average 4.9
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)43 · 1
Rec yds: 434th highest of 8, average 52.4
Targets: 1lowest of 8, average 4.9
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)43 · 7
Rec yds: 434th highest of 8, average 52.4
Targets: 7highest of 8, average 4.9
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)76 · 2
Rec yds: 762nd highest of 8, average 52.4
Targets: 27th highest of 8, average 4.9
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)29 · 5
Rec yds: 297th highest of 8, average 52.4
Targets: 55th highest of 8, average 4.9
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)98 · 4
Rec yds: 98highest of 8, average 52.4
Targets: 46th highest of 8, average 4.9
Target map
Success by depth and direction
Expand
leftmiddlerightdeep
67%3 tgt33 y/a
33%3 tgt14.3 y/a
50%2 tgt21 y/a
short
58%12 tgt7.6 y/a
63%8 tgt9.5 y/a
45%11 tgt6.2 y/a
Cell = success rate. Darker orange = more successful.
Good signShort middle is where he wins most (63% success, 9.5 yards per target). Short left gets the most volume (12 targets) and works 58% of the time.
More analysis
39 targets charted by depth and direction. Open a zone for the numbers behind the cell.
Short left58% · 12 targets
12targets
7successful
58%success
7.6yards per target
31%of all targets
Short right45% · 11 targets
11targets
5successful
45%success
6.2yards per target
28%of all targets
The least successful area with at least five targets.
Short middle63% · 8 targets
8targets
5successful
63%success
9.5yards per target
21%of all targets
The most successful area with at least five targets.
Deep middle33% · 3 targets
3targets
1successful
33%success
14.3yards per target
8%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
Deep left67% · 3 targets
3targets
2successful
67%success
33yards per target
8%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
Deep right50% · 2 targets
2targets
1successful
50%success
21yards per target
5%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
Freshman trending up: 5 targets vs Ole Miss and 3 explosives in the last three games.
Caught the tying touchdown at Oklahoma. Plays Z when Coleman is out.
Three catches for 17 yards vs MSU, including an 8-yarder on 3rd-and-12 that set up the field goal.
Production by game
Receiving yards (bars) and targets (line)
Expand
Good signHis role is growing. 22 targets, 6.9 yards per target and 46% success (all Texas receivers and tight ends: 51%). He is up to 3.7 targets a game over the last three, from 2.2 before. Best game: Tennessee (2 catches, 34 yards).
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)25 · 3
Rec yds: 252nd highest of 8, average 18.9
Targets: 32nd highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)0 · 0
Rec yds: 0lowest of 8, average 18.9
Targets: 0lowest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)22 · 3
Rec yds: 224th highest of 8, average 18.9
Targets: 32nd highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)34 · 3
Rec yds: 34highest of 8, average 18.9
Targets: 32nd highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)15 · 2
Rec yds: 156th highest of 8, average 18.9
Targets: 27th highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)24 · 3
Rec yds: 243rd highest of 8, average 18.9
Targets: 32nd highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)14 · 5
Rec yds: 147th highest of 8, average 18.9
Targets: 5highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)17 · 3
Rec yds: 175th highest of 8, average 18.9
Targets: 32nd highest of 8, average 2.8
Target map
Success by depth and direction
Expand
leftmiddlerightdeep
100%1 tgt29 y/a
–none
0%1 tgt0 y/a
short
60%5 tgt11 y/a
25%4 tgt2.5 y/a
45%11 tgt5.2 y/a
Cell = success rate. Darker orange = more successful.
MixedShort left is where he wins most (60% success, 11 yards per target). Short right gets the most volume (11 targets) and works 45% of the time. Short middle is the weak spot: 25% on 4.
More analysis
22 targets charted by depth and direction. Open a zone for the numbers behind the cell.
Short right45% · 11 targets
11targets
5successful
45%success
5.2yards per target
50%of all targets
The least successful area with at least five targets.
Short left60% · 5 targets
5targets
3successful
60%success
11yards per target
23%of all targets
The most successful area with at least five targets.
Short middle25% · 4 targets
4targets
1successful
25%success
2.5yards per target
18%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
Deep left100% · 1 targets
1targets
1successful
100%success
29yards per target
5%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
Deep right0% · 1 targets
1targets
0successful
0%success
0yards per target
5%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
A blocker first: 15 targets in eight games, though he made the 4th-and-9 catch on the Ohio State comeback.
Only 27% success on his targets.
Production by game
Receiving yards (bars) and targets (line)
Expand
ConcernNot a reliable target yet. 15 targets, 4.7 yards per target and 27% success (all Texas receivers and tight ends: 51%). He is on the field mainly to block, so the targets are occasional. Best game: Ohio State (3 catches, 39 yards).
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)25 · 2
Rec yds: 252nd highest of 8, average 8.8
Targets: 23rd highest of 8, average 1.9
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)39 · 6
Rec yds: 39highest of 8, average 8.8
Targets: 6highest of 8, average 1.9
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)0 · 1
Rec yds: 04th highest of 8, average 8.8
Targets: 15th highest of 8, average 1.9
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)6 · 3
Rec yds: 63rd highest of 8, average 8.8
Targets: 32nd highest of 8, average 1.9
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)0 · 0
Rec yds: 04th highest of 8, average 8.8
Targets: 07th highest of 8, average 1.9
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)0 · 0
Rec yds: 04th highest of 8, average 8.8
Targets: 07th highest of 8, average 1.9
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)0 · 1
Rec yds: 04th highest of 8, average 8.8
Targets: 15th highest of 8, average 1.9
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)0 · 2
Rec yds: 04th highest of 8, average 8.8
Targets: 23rd highest of 8, average 1.9
Target map
Success by depth and direction
Expand
leftmiddlerightdeep
–none
–none
0%1 tgt0 y/a
short
38%8 tgt6.9 y/a
50%2 tgt4.5 y/a
0%4 tgt1.5 y/a
Cell = success rate. Darker orange = more successful.
ConcernNo area is working yet. His best spot with real volume is short left, and it works 38% of the time. Short right is the weak spot: 0% on 4.
More analysis
15 targets charted by depth and direction. Open a zone for the numbers behind the cell.
Short left38% · 8 targets
8targets
3successful
38%success
6.9yards per target
53%of all targets
Short right0% · 4 targets
4targets
0successful
0%success
1.5yards per target
27%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
Short middle50% · 2 targets
2targets
1successful
50%success
4.5yards per target
13%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
Deep right0% · 1 targets
1targets
0successful
0%success
0yards per target
7%of all targets
Small sample: read it as what happened, not a tendency.
UnitGraded as a unit. LT Trevor Goosby out for the season (knee) since Ole Miss.
9.6%Sack rate24 sacks, 121 yds lost
26QB hurrieslogged by the stat crew
42.7%Run successrunning back carries
2.7Line yardsper carry · #120 of 138
20.6%Stuffedruns for 0 or less · #111
18.1%Havoc allowed#125 of 138
11Flags on linemen6.7 points given away
What the numbers say Analyst read from the data
Pass protection is a three-game problem. 16 of the 24 sacks came against Tennessee, Florida and Mississippi State, each at a sack rate near 20%. In the other five games it allowed 8 sacks on 175 dropbacks (4.6%).
Sacks have cost 121 yards, and two of them were strip-sacks that turned into opponent points (Ole Miss touchdown, MSU field goal).
Two of the three bad protection games (Tennessee, Florida) came with Goosby healthy, so the injury is not the whole story.
By national standards the run blocking is a real weakness: 2.7 line yards per carry ranks #120 of 138, and 20.6% of runs are stopped at or behind the line (#111).
The best run-blocking games were UTSA (3.2) and Oklahoma (3.2). The worst were Florida (2.0) and Tennessee (2.1), two of the three games where the protection also collapsed.
Negative plays are the cost: defenses make a tackle for loss, break up a pass or force a turnover on 18.1% of Texas snaps, #125 of 138 (lower is better).
Runs to the right have been the most efficient all season: 49% success and 4.8 yards per carry, against 39% to the left.
11 flags on linemen (7 false starts, 3 holds), worth 6.7 expected points. Three came against Ole Miss.
Protection by game
Sacks and QB hurries allowed (bars), sack rate (line)
Expand
ConcernFine most weeks, collapsed in 3. Tennessee, Florida and Mississippi State got a sack on 19 to 24% of dropbacks, roughly 1 in 5. In the other 5 games it was 8 sacks on 175 dropbacks (4.6%), a healthy rate. Hurries are only the ones the stadium stat crew logged, so treat them as a floor.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)1 · 0 · 2.9%
Sacks: 17th highest of 8, average 3
QB hurries: 0lowest of 8, average 3.3
Sack rate: 2.9%7th highest of 8, average 10.8%
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)2 · 3 · 5.1%
Sacks: 24th highest of 8, average 3
QB hurries: 34th highest of 8, average 3.3
Sack rate: 5.1%6th highest of 8, average 10.8%
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)1 · 5 · 2.7%
Sacks: 17th highest of 8, average 3
QB hurries: 52nd highest of 8, average 3.3
Sack rate: 2.7%lowest of 8, average 10.8%
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)6 · 2 · 24%
Sacks: 6highest of 8, average 3
QB hurries: 25th highest of 8, average 3.3
Sack rate: 24%highest of 8, average 10.8%
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)2 · 5 · 6.1%
Sacks: 24th highest of 8, average 3
QB hurries: 52nd highest of 8, average 3.3
Sack rate: 6.1%5th highest of 8, average 10.8%
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)5 · 2 · 20%
Sacks: 52nd highest of 8, average 3
QB hurries: 25th highest of 8, average 3.3
Sack rate: 20%2nd highest of 8, average 10.8%
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)2 · 7 · 6.2%
Sacks: 24th highest of 8, average 3
QB hurries: 7highest of 8, average 3.3
Sack rate: 6.2%4th highest of 8, average 10.8%
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)5 · 2 · 19.2%
Sacks: 52nd highest of 8, average 3
QB hurries: 25th highest of 8, average 3.3
Sack rate: 19.2%3rd highest of 8, average 10.8%
Run blocking by game
Line yards per carry (line), running back success rate (bars)
Expand
ConcernBelow the national standard most weeks. 2.7 line yards per carry ranks #120 of 138 (around 2.8 is solid). The line cleared 3 yards a carry only against Ohio State, UTSA and Oklahoma. Mississippi State was the low point for the backs: 26% of carries successful.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)35.7% · 2.5
Run success: 35.7%7th highest of 8, average 41.2%
Line yards per carry: 2.56th highest of 8, average 2.7
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)53.1% · 3.0
Run success: 53.1%highest of 8, average 41.2%
Line yards per carry: 3.03rd highest of 8, average 2.7
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)51.3% · 3.2
Run success: 51.3%2nd highest of 8, average 41.2%
Line yards per carry: 3.2highest of 8, average 2.7
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)39.1% · 2.1
Run success: 39.1%6th highest of 8, average 41.2%
Line yards per carry: 2.17th highest of 8, average 2.7
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)40% · 3.2
Run success: 40%4th highest of 8, average 41.2%
Line yards per carry: 3.22nd highest of 8, average 2.7
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)40% · 2.0
Run success: 40%4th highest of 8, average 41.2%
Line yards per carry: 2.0lowest of 8, average 2.7
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)43.8% · 2.7
Run success: 43.8%3rd highest of 8, average 41.2%
Line yards per carry: 2.74th highest of 8, average 2.7
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)26.3% · 2.6
Run success: 26.3%lowest of 8, average 41.2%
Line yards per carry: 2.65th highest of 8, average 2.7
Where the runs work
Running back carries by direction, season
Expand
MixedThe right side is the strength. Runs to the right succeed 49% of the time at 4.8 yards a carry, against 39% to the left. Yet 51% of carries go up the middle, where they succeed 41%.
OutHigh-ankle sprain (Oct 17); missed Ole Miss and MSU
25Tackles
16TFL
10.5Sacks
0INT
0Passes defended
4QB hurries
Why he produces Analyst read from the data
10.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss in six games before the injury, both team highs.
Five and a half sacks at Tennessee set a school record. Texas had 1 and 0 sacks in his first two missed games, then 7 vs MSU.
Tackles by game
Tackles per game, box score
Expand
Steady7th on the team in tackles. 25 tackles in 6 games, 4.2 a game, with a high of 9 vs Tennessee. He has missed the last 2 games. For a lineman, the splash plays matter more than tackles.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)1
Tackles: 15th highest of 6, average 4.2
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)2
Tackles: 24th highest of 6, average 4.2
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)1
Tackles: 15th highest of 6, average 4.2
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)9
Tackles: 9highest of 6, average 4.2
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)4
Tackles: 43rd highest of 6, average 4.2
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)8
Tackles: 82nd highest of 6, average 4.2
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)
Did not play.
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)
Did not play.
Splash plays
Season totals
Expand
Good signOne of the two most disruptive players on the defense. 16 havoc plays (tackles for loss, passes defended and interceptions) in 6 games, #2 on the team. That includes 10.5 sacks.
Good signHis role is growing. 22 tackles, 2.8 a game, with a high of 5 vs Mississippi State. Busier lately: 4.5 a game over the last two, up from 2.2. For a lineman, the splash plays matter more than tackles.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)0
Tackles: 07th highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)3
Tackles: 34th highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)0
Tackles: 07th highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)4
Tackles: 42nd highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)3
Tackles: 34th highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)3
Tackles: 34th highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)4
Tackles: 42nd highest of 8, average 2.8
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)5
Tackles: 5highest of 8, average 2.8
Splash plays
Season totals
Expand
ConcernAn occasional splash play. 3.5 havoc plays (tackles for loss, passes defended and interceptions), #12 on the team. He has also drawn 4 flags worth 4.9 points (see Discipline).
Four tackles for loss and four QB hurries from the interior.
Batted-pass and pressure threat inside.
Tackles by game
Tackles per game, box score
Expand
Steady7th on the team in tackles. 25 tackles, 3.1 a game, with a high of 5 vs Oklahoma. For a lineman, the splash plays matter more than tackles.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)3
Tackles: 35th highest of 8, average 3.1
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)1
Tackles: 17th highest of 8, average 3.1
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)2
Tackles: 26th highest of 8, average 3.1
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)4
Tackles: 43rd highest of 8, average 3.1
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)5
Tackles: 5highest of 8, average 3.1
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)1
Tackles: 17th highest of 8, average 3.1
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)4
Tackles: 43rd highest of 8, average 3.1
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)5
Tackles: 5highest of 8, average 3.1
Splash plays
Season totals
Expand
Good signMakes his share of plays. 5 havoc plays (tackles for loss, passes defended and interceptions), #7 on the team. He gets near the quarterback (4 hurries) more often than he finishes (0.5 sacks).
Leads the defense in interceptions (3) and is second in tackles (61) and tackles for loss (9.5).
Vs Ole Miss: two passes defended and the goal-line interception.
Vs MSU: 8 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 TFL and two forced fumbles. His strip-sack of Swann became Watson's 61-yard touchdown.
The pass rush without Simmons runs through him: Texas had 7 sacks vs MSU after 1 and 0 in the previous two games.
Tackles by game
Tackles per game, box score
Expand
Good sign2nd on the team in tackles. 61 tackles, 7.6 a game, with a high of 13 vs Tennessee.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)5
Tackles: 56th highest of 8, average 7.6
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)8
Tackles: 83rd highest of 8, average 7.6
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)4
Tackles: 47th highest of 8, average 7.6
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)13
Tackles: 13highest of 8, average 7.6
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)12
Tackles: 122nd highest of 8, average 7.6
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)7
Tackles: 75th highest of 8, average 7.6
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)4
Tackles: 47th highest of 8, average 7.6
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)8
Tackles: 83rd highest of 8, average 7.6
Splash plays
Season totals
Expand
Good signOne of the two most disruptive players on the defense. 16.5 havoc plays (tackles for loss, passes defended and interceptions), #1 on the team. That includes 4 sacks and 3 interceptions.
Scoop-and-score vs Texas State and the game-ending interception vs Ohio State.
Five passes defended, the most on the team.
Tackles by game
Tackles per game, box score
Expand
Steady6th on the team in tackles. 28 tackles, 3.5 a game, with a high of 7 vs Ole Miss.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)6
Tackles: 62nd highest of 8, average 3.5
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)3
Tackles: 33rd highest of 8, average 3.5
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)2
Tackles: 27th highest of 8, average 3.5
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)3
Tackles: 33rd highest of 8, average 3.5
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)3
Tackles: 33rd highest of 8, average 3.5
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)3
Tackles: 33rd highest of 8, average 3.5
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)7
Tackles: 7highest of 8, average 3.5
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)1
Tackles: 1lowest of 8, average 3.5
Splash plays
Season totals
Expand
Good signMakes his share of plays. 6 havoc plays (tackles for loss, passes defended and interceptions), #5 on the team. 5 passes defended shows real ball skills.
StarterSplit time with freshman Samari Matthews vs MSU
34Tackles
2TFL
0Sacks
0INT
2Passes defended
0QB hurries
Why he produces Analyst read from the data
Kept the job when Warren Roberson was pulled in the first half vs Ole Miss.
Four pass interference flags, three of them on third down or inside the 15 (see Discipline).
Tackles by game
Tackles per game, box score
Expand
Steady5th on the team in tackles. 34 tackles, 4.3 a game, with a high of 6 vs Ohio State. For a corner, a lot of tackles can also mean the ball is coming his way.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)5
Tackles: 53rd highest of 8, average 4.3
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)6
Tackles: 6highest of 8, average 4.3
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)4
Tackles: 44th highest of 8, average 4.3
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)4
Tackles: 44th highest of 8, average 4.3
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)2
Tackles: 2lowest of 8, average 4.3
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)6
Tackles: 6highest of 8, average 4.3
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)3
Tackles: 37th highest of 8, average 4.3
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)4
Tackles: 44th highest of 8, average 4.3
Splash plays
Season totals
Expand
ConcernAn occasional splash play. 4 havoc plays (tackles for loss, passes defended and interceptions), #9 on the team. He has also drawn 4 flags worth 8.1 points (see Discipline).
Three pass breakups vs Florida. Two pass interference flags at Tennessee.
Tackles by game
Tackles per game, box score
Expand
Steady13th on the team in tackles. 18 tackles, 2.3 a game, with a high of 5 vs Ole Miss.
More analysis
Game by game, with the numbers behind each bar.
Wk 1 Texas State (W 59-7)1
Tackles: 16th highest of 8, average 2.3
Wk 2 Ohio State (W 24-23)2
Tackles: 24th highest of 8, average 2.3
Wk 3 UTSA (W 30-6)2
Tackles: 24th highest of 8, average 2.3
Wk 4 at Tennessee (W 20-17)3
Tackles: 32nd highest of 8, average 2.3
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma (L 24-27)1
Tackles: 16th highest of 8, average 2.3
Wk 6 Florida (L 24-27)3
Tackles: 32nd highest of 8, average 2.3
Wk 7 Ole Miss (W 34-27)5
Tackles: 5highest of 8, average 2.3
Wk 8 Mississippi State (W 31-3)1
Tackles: 16th highest of 8, average 2.3
Splash plays
Season totals
Expand
Good signMakes his share of plays. 5 havoc plays (tackles for loss, passes defended and interceptions), #7 on the team. 4 passes defended shows real ball skills.
Sat, Nov 711 AM CTColumbia, Mo.Both teams 6-2 · 3-2 SECLine Texas -2.5 · total 43
Missouri's defense almost never bends. When it does, it breaks.
Both teams got here on defense. The market calls it close: Texas by 2.5 with a total of 43, roughly 23 to 20. The numbers point to three places it gets decided: whether Texas cashes in on the big plays Missouri allows, whether the Texas line keeps Arch Manning upright, and the third quarter.
The line
As of Wed, Nov 4
-2.5Texas · opened -3
43Total · opened 46.5
SP+ rank
Opponent-adjusted team rating
#8Texas
#18Missouri
Missouri at home
Points per game, 4 home games
4-0Record
38-14Scored and allowed
Who's availableSEC availability report, Fri, Nov 6, 7:10 PM CT
Status
Texas
Missouri
Out
RB Hollywood Smothers · OL Trevor Goosby · TE Nick Townsend · EDGE Richard Wesley
RB Malae Fonoti · OL Josh Atkins · TE Gavin Hoffman
Questionable
EDGE Colin Simmons · WR Cam Coleman
None listed
Probable
WR Ryan Wingo · DB Kade Phillips · DB Graceson Littleton
None listed
ConcernThe report still lands harder on Texas. None of Missouri's four biggest producers (Simmons, Lee, Olugbode, Roberts) is listed, and Fonoti has 3 carries all season. Texas has its most efficient back and a starting lineman out, and its sack leader and its most efficient receiver questionable. Since Wednesday, Ryan Wingo and both defensive backs moved from questionable to probable.
The receivers. Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo have produced +61 of the +92 expected points Texas receivers and tight ends have added this season, about two-thirds. Wingo is now probable; Coleman is still questionable. If Coleman is limited, more of the big-play load falls to Wingo and Emmett Mosley V (+24.9). No other Texas pass catcher is above +4.
The backfield. Hollywood Smothers has kept drives on schedule better than any Texas back (45% success, against 37% for Raleek Brown), though Brown has more of the big runs. Without him, Brown and Michael Terry III carry the load against a run defense ranked #23 in expected points allowed per rush.
The line. Trevor Goosby is out, and the front across from the Texas line ranks #12 in line yards allowed and #14 in havoc.
The defense. Colin Simmons, who had 10.5 sacks in the first six games, is questionable after missing the last two. Defensive backs Kade Phillips and Graceson Littleton are probable, which matters in a game where the key matchup is Missouri's short-middle passing game against the softest area of the Texas defense.
A defense with a leakTexas offense vs Missouri defense
Missouri allows success on 35.7% of snaps, #17 of 138 FBS teams. It is even better on first down, where opponents lose 0.28 expected points a play (184 snaps). That is how a defense puts an offense behind schedule before the drive starts.
The catch is what happens when a play gets through. Missouri ranks #118 in explosiveness allowed, and the leaks show up on the downs where offenses are supposed to be stuck: 16% of 2nd-and-long snaps (104) and 21% of 3rd-and-7-or-more snaps (58) have gone for explosive plays.
That suits Texas better than it sounds. The Texas offense is ordinary at staying on schedule (#78 in success rate), but it has been dangerous once it falls behind: on 2nd-and-long it produces an explosive play on 24% of snaps (93), its best down. Manning's two best throws are the short middle (65% success on 40 throws, +1.02 expected points each) and deep left (8 of 13 successful, +1.59 each, a small sample). Missouri allows 44% success and +0.45 a throw over the short middle (64), the second most common throw it faces.
The trenchesThe matchup that worries the numbers
Texas' run blocking ranks #120 in line yards per carry (2.71) and #111 in stuff rate, with 21% of runs stopped at or behind the line. Missouri's front ranks #12 and #29 in the same two stats and #14 in havoc, the share of snaps that end in a tackle for loss, a pass breakup or a takeaway. Texas ranks #125 in havoc allowed.
Protection is the sharper edge. Texas gives up a sack on 10.2% of dropbacks, but the number is lumpy: 16 of its 24 sacks came against Tennessee, Florida and Mississippi State, near 1 in 5 dropbacks each time. In the other five games it allowed 8 on 175 dropbacks (4.6%). Missouri's defense sacks the quarterback on 6.8% of dropbacks, and Texas will be without Trevor Goosby. Which version of the Texas line shows up is the biggest question this data cannot answer in advance.
Simmons lives underneathMissouri offense vs Texas defense
Of Missouri's 226 throws with a charted target area, 189 went short (84%). Austin Simmons gets the ball out: Missouri allows a sack on just 2.6% of dropbacks. Simmons has produced +79 expected points this season, +0.37 a dropback, and his best area is the short middle at 51% success and +0.84 a throw (41). Every other short zone averages less than half of that.
That is also the softest spot in the Texas defense. Opponents succeed on 60% of short-middle throws against Texas (43), its worst area by a wide margin; no other zone with a real sample is above 35%. Simmons' top targets are Cayden Lee (+41 expected points on about 73 targets) and Donovan Olugbode (+39 on about 57). Jamal Roberts is the lead back.
Everywhere else, the Texas defense has the edge: it holds the better national rank in all ten pairings below, including success rate (#7 against Missouri's #80) and points allowed per trip inside the 40 (#6 against #86). Against a quick-release offense, the coverage matters as much as the rush. The rush had 7 sacks against Mississippi State, 3 of them by Rasheem Biles, without Colin Simmons, who is questionable after missing the last two games.
The matchups, by national rank
When Texas has the ball
Texas O
Missouri D
EPA per play
#104
#22
Success rate
#78
#17
Explosiveness
#87
#118
EPA per pass
#66
#33
EPA per rush
#116
#23
Line yards
#120
#12
Stuff rate
#111
#29
Havoc
#125
#14
Passing-down success
#56
#31
Points per trip inside 40
#18
#26
When Missouri has the ball
Missouri O
Texas D
EPA per play
#51
#16
Success rate
#80
#7
Explosiveness
#41
#14
EPA per pass
#32
#19
EPA per rush
#88
#19
Line yards
#94
#13
Stuff rate
#105
#33
Havoc
#81
#10
Passing-down success
#78
#8
Points per trip inside 40
#86
#6
MixedEach defense wins its side. Ranks among 138 FBS teams, garbage time excluded, better rank highlighted. Missouri's defense holds the better rank in 8 of 10 pairings against the Texas offense; the exceptions are explosiveness and finishing drives. The Texas defense wins all 10 against the Missouri offense.
Money downsBoth defenses own third-and-long
Texas allows 14% success on 3rd-and-7 or more (65 snaps). Missouri allows 22% (58). Both are soft on third-and-short: Texas allows 61% (28), Missouri 67% (36, five in six of them runs). Texas converts 68% of its own 3rd-and-1-to-3 (38) and runs it three times in four, so a short third down should move the chains.
The middle distance is where Missouri lives. It converts 50% of 3rd-and-4-to-6 (32) and throws on 7 of 8 of them, against a Texas defense that allows 50% there too (30). On 3rd-and-7 or more Missouri drops to 28% (54). Overall, Missouri converts 44% of third downs (45 of 103) and Texas 38% (38 of 100). For both teams, first and second down decide which third down they get.
Finishing
Texas scores 4.5 points per trip inside the opponent 40 (#18), and its defense allows 2.3 (#6). Missouri scores 3.6 (#86) and allows 2.9 (#26). Inside the 20, Missouri runs 70% of the time and succeeds on 33% of those snaps (70). In a game expected in the low 40s, turning two field goals into touchdowns is worth more than the spread.
The third quarterThe 15 minutes that tilt toward Missouri
Texas' offense is at its best in the first quarter (+0.21 expected points a play) and its worst in the third (-0.09). Missouri's offense climbs through the first three quarters and peaks in the third at +0.32, more than three times its first-quarter rate. Missouri's defense is also at its best in the third (-0.07). Texas had its best third quarter of the season last week, 41% success and a 75-yard touchdown drive, but that is one game.
Offense by quarter, expected points per play
Texas offenseMissouri offense
ConcernThe widest gap is the third quarter: Texas at -0.09 a play, Missouri at +0.32. Season to date, garbage time excluded.
ColumbiaMissouri at home, and the common opponents
Missouri is 4-0 at home, outscoring Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Troy, Florida and Texas A&M 38.3 to 13.5 a game. Both of its losses came on the road. Texas has played one true road game this season, a 20-17 win at Tennessee in Week 4.
Shared opponent
Missouri
Texas
Florida
W 45-17 · home
L 24-27 · home
Ole Miss
L 3-31 · away
W 34-27 · home
Mississippi State
L 24-31 · away
W 31-3 · home
MixedTexas went 2-1 and Missouri 1-2 against these three, but all three Texas games were in Austin and two of Missouri's were on the road. Treat it as a tiebreaker at most.
Who to watchMost expected points produced this season
Texas
Arch Manning QB
+46.6 EPA · +0.23 a dropback
16 of 20, 220 yards and 3 touchdowns last week, with 5 sacks taken.
Cam Coleman WR
+31.4 EPA · +0.90 a target
The best rate of any Texas receiver with a real sample. Questionable on Friday's report.
Ryan Wingo WR
+30.0 EPA · +0.55 a target
7 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss. Probable on Friday's report.
Emmett Mosley V WR
+24.9 EPA · +0.66 a target
4 catches for 98 yards and a touchdown last week, all four successful plays. The only one of the three not on the report.
Rasheem Biles LB
3 INT, team high
3 sacks, 4 tackles for loss and the strip that became a touchdown last week.
Missouri
Austin Simmons QB
+79.0 EPA · +0.37 a dropback
Sacked on 2.6% of dropbacks.
Cayden Lee WR
+41.1 EPA · +0.56 a target
The most of any Missouri receiver, and +1.08 a play on third down.
Donovan Olugbode WR
+38.7 EPA · +0.79 a target
+1.32 a play on third down.
Jamal Roberts RB
+25.6 EPA · lead back
+0.11 a carry and +0.35 a target.
Six keys for TexasGraded after the game in the post-game report
Take away the short middle.
Missouri's best throw (+0.84 a pass, 51% success) meets the softest spot in the Texas defense (60% allowed). Make Simmons win outside the numbers.
Make it 3rd-and-long.
Missouri converts 50% on 3rd-and-4 to 6 and 28% on 3rd-and-7 or more, where Texas allows 14%.
Take the shots.
Missouri is #17 in success rate and #118 in explosiveness. Manning's deep-left and short-middle throws are his two best.
Keep Manning upright.
Texas allows a sack on 10.2% of dropbacks; Missouri gets one on 6.8% and is #14 in havoc.
Make them kick.
Missouri is #86 in points per trip inside the 40 and runs 70% of the time inside the 20. The Texas defense is #6.
Win the third quarter.
Texas' offense is at its worst in the third (-0.09 a play), Missouri's at its best (+0.32).
During the gameFour numbers to keep an eye on
Sacks on Manning. In Texas' five clean protection games it allowed 8 sacks total, under 2 a game. Three or more by halftime looks like Tennessee, Florida and Mississippi State.
Missouri over the short middle. Opponents succeed there 60% of the time against Texas. If Simmons keeps completing between the hashes, the first key is a miss.
Missouri's third-down distance. At 7 or more yards to go, Missouri converts 28%. At 4 to 6, half the time.
Texas explosive plays. Texas produces one on 15% of snaps and Missouri allows 13%. Several 20-yard plays is the clearest path for an offense facing this defense.
Availability comes only from the SEC's official report; this preview uses the Friday report, posted Friday, Nov 6 at 7:10 PM CT. A game-day update could still change it. Season numbers run through Week 9 and leave out garbage time. A play is a success if it gains 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or all of them on 3rd and 4th. Expected points per play measure how much each snap changed the value of the possession. An explosive play is a run of 10 or more yards or a completion of 15 or more. Built from public sources.
Sat, Oct 31DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumTexas now 6-2 · 3-2 SECLine Texas -19.5 · covered by 8.5
The defense held Mississippi State to a field goal, and Texas cashed every trip that mattered
Both teams reached the other's 40-yard line four times. Texas scored on all four, three touchdowns and a field goal, and Mississippi State came away with 3 points. That gap, plus Maraad Watson's 61-yard fumble return, is the game. The Texas defense allowed success on 24% of snaps (16 of 66), its best game of the season, and Mississippi State managed 3 successful plays on 30 snaps after halftime. The offense was efficient when Manning had time (16 of 20, 220 yards, 3 touchdowns) but was sacked 5 times on 26 dropbacks and went three-and-out on 5 of its 11 possessions, so the score flatters it.
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Final
Texas
7
10
7
7
31
Mississippi State
0
0
3
0
3
The five factors: Texas won 4 of 5Efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers decide most college games
EfficiencyTexas
Success rate, every snap
38%Texas · 20 of 53
24%Mississippi State · 16 of 66
ExplosivenessTexas
Runs of 10+ and completions of 15+
7Texas · 13% of snaps
5Mississippi State · 8% of snaps
Field positionMississippi State
Average start of a possession
Own 24Texas · 11 possessions
Own 34Mississippi State · 13 possessions
Finishing drivesTexas
Points per trip past the opponent 40
6.0Texas · 24 pts on 4 trips
0.8Mississippi State · 3 pts on 4 trips
TurnoversTexas
Giveaways, and points scored off them
1Texas · 7 points off theirs
1Mississippi State · 3 points off ours
Texas won four of the five factors that decide most college games. The one it lost, field position, it lost by 10 yards a possession: Mac Chiumento's six punts averaged 38.2 yards against 48.1 for Ethan Pulliam's seven, and the Manning fumble handed Mississippi State the ball at the Texas 28. It did not matter, because Mississippi State turned four trips past the 40 into 3 points.
Game flowExpected points added up snap by snap, every possession, and every score
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Texas offense (+8.8)Mississippi State offense (-13.1)Possession scoredTurnover or downsPunt or end of halfThin lines: scores
Good signEach line adds up the expected points one offense produced, snap by snap, so a rising line is an offense moving the ball and a falling one is an offense losing ground. Texas' line climbs in steps: the opening drive, the 75-yard drive in the third and the 62-yard drive in the fourth. The dip in the third is the two straight sacks. Mississippi State's line is roughly flat through the first half and falls for the rest of the game. One caveat: the play feed values Biles' strip-sack at zero, so the real drop at the end of the first half is bigger than the line shows.
Q3 8:58Mississippi StateKyle Ferrie 30 Yd Field Goal17-3
Q3 5:35TexasRaleek Brown 4 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)24-3
Q4 7:56TexasEmmett Mosley V 42 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)31-3
The moments that decided it9 plays and drives, in order
Q1 13:52Texas 0-0
Explosive
47 yards on 3rd-and-9
On the third snap of the game, Manning hit Cam Coleman over the short middle at the Texas 48 and he ran to the Mississippi State 14. The next play was Coleman's 14-yard touchdown. Worth +4.1 expected points, the most valuable Texas play of the night.
Q2 12:32Texas 7-0
Stop
A 12-play drive with nothing to show
Mississippi State's best drive went 50 yards over 6:18 to the Texas 18, then lost 6 on a fumbled run, threw incomplete on 3rd-and-12 and missed a 38-yard field goal.
Q2 5:41Texas 10-0
Score
The 13-play field goal drive
13 plays, 52 yards, 6:51. Manning converted three third downs with his legs (3rd-and-1, 3rd-and-9 and 3rd-and-6), and a Mississippi State personal foul on the 3rd-and-9 run added 15 more. It stalled at the 28 after a false start on 3rd-and-7, and Gianni Spetic made it from 45.
Q2 2:49Texas 10-0
Flag
An 84-yard return touchdown called back
Ryan Niblett returned a punt 84 yards to the end zone. A block in the back put the ball at the Texas 8 instead, an illegal formation backed it up to the 4, and Texas punted from its own 10. Cost: about 8 expected points, the most expensive Texas flag of the season.
Q2 1:13Texas 10-0
Defensive TD
Biles strips, Watson scores
Mississippi State had a 1st-and-10 at the Texas 34 after the short punt. On 2nd down Rasheem Biles sacked AJ Swann and knocked the ball loose, and Maraad Watson returned it 61 yards. A likely Mississippi State field goal attempt became a 17-0 Texas lead.
Q3 11:51Texas 17-0
Turnover
Back-to-back sacks, then a fumble
On the first Texas possession of the second half, Manning was sacked for 8 on 2nd-and-8 and again on 3rd-and-16, and lost the ball at the Texas 28. Worth -4.1 expected points. Mississippi State kicked its only points from there, a 30-yard field goal after 16 yards.
Q3 8:58Texas 17-3
Answer
75 yards in seven plays
Texas went straight back down the field: a 37-yard throw to Emmett Mosley on the first snap, a 22-yard catch by Raleek Brown, and Brown's 4-yard touchdown catch on 3rd-and-goal. It is the response the third quarter has been missing all season.
Q3 0:46Texas 24-3
Stop
Turnover on downs at the Texas 40
A 23-yard Texas punt gave Mississippi State the ball at the Texas 48. Four snaps later it threw incomplete on 4th-and-2.
Q4 7:56Texas 24-3
Explosive
Mosley, 42 yards on 3rd-and-1
Michael Terry III opened the drive with carries of 8, 3 and 4, and Derrek Cooper added 5. On 3rd-and-1 at the Mississippi State 42, a down Texas runs about three times in four this season, Manning threw deep right to Mosley for the touchdown. +4.0 expected points.
Quarter by quarter
Qtr
Points
Texas success
EPA/play
Mississippi State success
EPA/play
Q1
7-0
30% 10 snaps
+0.34
38% 16
+0.18
Q2
10-0
40% 15 snaps
+0.21
35% 20
-0.19
Q3
7-3
41% 17 snaps
+0.02
8% 13
-0.38
Q4
7-0
36% 11 snaps
+0.18
12% 17
-0.43
The first half was close on the field: Mississippi State's offense was successful on 35 to 38% of snaps and outplayed Texas in the first quarter (38% to 30%). The game turned in the second half, when Mississippi State succeeded on 1 of 13 snaps in the third and 2 of 17 in the fourth. Texas' third quarter, the season-long problem, was its most efficient (41% on 17 snaps), though the expected points were only just above zero because the quarter opened with two sacks and a lost fumble.
Team stats
Texas
Mississippi State
Total yards
280
187
Plays
53
66
Yards per play
5.3
2.8
Expected points per play
+0.17
-0.20
Passing
17 of 21, 220 yds
15 of 25, 119 yds
Dropback success
42% (26)
28% (32)
Rushing (sacks included)
32 for 60
41 for 68
Run success
33% (27)
21% (34)
Sacks allowed
5 (19% of dropbacks)
7 (22%)
Third down
6 of 14
6 of 18
First downs
13
12
Penalties
5 for 42
6 for 50
Turnovers
1
1
Three-and-outs
5 of 11
3 of 13
Possession
27:32
32:28
Situations
Texas
Mississippi State
Third down, 1 to 3 to go
2 of 2
3 of 6
Third down, 4 to 6 to go
2 of 5
3 of 6
Third down, 7 or more
2 of 7
0 of 7
Average distance on third down
7.4 yds
6.6 yds
Trips past the opponent 40
4 (24 pts)
4 (3 pts)
What Texas did well, and what it didn't
What went well
The best defensive game of the season. 24% success allowed (16 of 66) and -0.20 expected points per play. Mississippi State went 0 of 7 on third or fourth down needing 7 or more, and its 25 runs up the middle produced 4 successful plays.
A pass rush without Colin Simmons. 7 sacks on 32 dropbacks (22%) from five players: Biles 3, then Justin Cryer, Zina Umeozulu, Justus Terry and Colton Vasek. Texas had 1 sack against Florida and none against Ole Miss.
Finishing. Four trips past the Mississippi State 40, four scores, three of them touchdowns: 6.0 points a trip, against a season mark that already ranked in the national top 20.
The short middle, as planned. Manning went 4 of 6 for 86 yards over the middle, including the 47-yarder. It is his most efficient throw on the season and it was 29% of his attempts, up from about 20%.
A third-quarter answer. After the fumble handed Mississippi State a field goal, the next Texas possession went 75 yards in 7 plays for a touchdown. In earlier SEC games a bad start to the second half had snowballed.
What didn't
Protection, again. 5 sacks on 26 dropbacks (19%), four of them after halftime and three in the third quarter. One was the lost fumble; two others ended drives on third down. It is the third game this season at about 1 in 5 dropbacks, after Tennessee and Florida.
No running game from the backs. Running backs carried 19 times for 50 yards and 5 successful plays (26%). Hollywood Smothers was stopped on all 4 of his carries, and runs to the right succeeded on 2 of 9. Manning's 8 runs that were not sacks gained 43 yards, more than any back.
Too many short possessions. 5 three-and-outs on 11 possessions (one in garbage time), so Texas ran 53 plays to Mississippi State's 66 and had the ball 27:32.
Field position. Texas started its possessions at its own 24 on average, Mississippi State at its own 34. The punting gap (38.2 yards a punt against 48.1) and the fumble at the 28 were the main reasons.
Flags that erased big plays. Five Texas penalties cost 12.2 expected points, about three times Mississippi State's. Two of them wiped out a Texas big play: the block in the back on Niblett's return and Cryer's face mask on his own 11-yard sack.
Why Texas wonThe contributing factors, most important first
1. Red-zone and scoring-zone execution. Equal trips past the 40 (four each), 24 points to 3. On its own that is more than the margin of victory.
2. The defensive touchdown. Mississippi State was at the Texas 34 in a 10-0 game. Seven Texas points instead of a likely Mississippi State field goal attempt is about a 10-point swing.
3. Shutting the second half down. 3 successful Mississippi State plays on 30 snaps after halftime. Its only points came after the Texas fumble at the Texas 28; every other second-half possession ended in a punt, a turnover on downs or the final whistle.
4. Big plays only one way. Texas had 7 explosive plays, four of them worth 20 yards or more. Mississippi State's longest play was 23 yards.
Top performersFrom the box score
Texas
Arch Manning QB
16 of 20, 220 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
Sacked 5 times, one lost fumble. His 8 runs that were not sacks gained 43 yards and converted three third downs.
Emmett Mosley V WR
4 catches, 98 yds, 1 TD
All four catches were successful plays: 37 and 42 yards deep, 14 over the middle on 2nd-and-4 and 5 on 1st-and-10. His first touchdown of the season.
Cam Coleman WR
2 catches, 61 yds, 1 TD
Both on the opening drive: the 47-yarder on 3rd-and-9 and the 14-yard touchdown.
Raleek Brown RB
8 carries, 30 yds · 2 catches, 26 yds, 1 TD
More useful as a receiver than a runner: the 22-yard catch and the touchdown on the third-quarter drive.
Rasheem Biles LB
8 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 tackles for loss
Three of the seven sacks, including the strip of Swann that became the touchdown.
Maraad Watson DL
3 tackles, 61-yd fumble return TD
The return turned a Mississippi State scoring chance into a 17-0 halftime lead.
Jelani McDonald S
9 tackles
Team high, six of them on completions.
Mississippi State
AJ Swann QB
12 of 15, 97 yds
Efficient on short throws until the strip-sack. Parker Puckett played quarterback from there and went 3 of 10 for 22.
Fluff Bothwell RB
17 carries, 49 yds
Long of 11. Mississippi State ran up the middle 25 times and 4 of those runs were successful.
Marquis Johnson WR
6 catches, 61 yds
Their only consistent target, with the longest play of the night for Mississippi State (23 yards).
Zakari Tillman LB
6 tackles, 1 sack, 2.5 tackles for loss
Recovered the Manning fumble that led to the field goal.
HomerProof keys for Mississippi State, graded
3 Hit1 Split1 Miss
Hit
Fix the third quarter. 41% success in the third (season 35%) and a 75-yard touchdown drive right after the strip-sack. MSU managed 7% in the third.
Hit
Move the completion point to the middle. Short middle went 4 of 6 for 86 yards and took 29% of the throws, up from about 20% on the season.
Hit
Take away Evans III and the left-side run. Evans had 3 catches for 19 yards and lost 10 rushing. MSU ran left only 3 times and finished at 25% success and 187 yards.
Split
Win 3rd-and-4 to 6. 2 of 5 (40%), better than the 32% season rate but still the down that stalls drives.
Miss
Run right and protect Cojoe. Runs to the right went 2 of 9. Five sacks on 26 dropbacks is the worst sack rate of the season, and one became MSU's only points.
Written before kickoff and graded on the full game, misses included.
Carry into Missouri: Missouri's defense sacks the quarterback on 6.8% of dropbacks and ranks in the national top 15 in havoc, so the protection problem travels. Missouri's offense is at its best in the third quarter.
Every snap is counted, garbage time included, so a few rates differ slightly from tables that leave it out. Sacks count as dropbacks, not runs. A play is a success if it gains 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or all of them on 3rd and 4th. Expected points per play measure how much each snap changed the value of the possession. Points by quarter and by possession reconcile to the final score. Built from public sources.
Sat, Oct 24DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumTexas now 5-2 · 2-2 SECLine Texas -3 · covered by 4
A 24-3 halftime lead disappeared, and Texas won it again in the fourth
Texas scored touchdowns on three straight drives in the first half (a Manning run, a 50-yard throw to Ryan Wingo and a Michael Terry III run) and led 24-3. On the first Texas possession of the second half Manning was sacked 23 yards into the end zone and lost the ball for an Ole Miss touchdown, and Ole Miss tied it 24-24 early in the fourth. After an interception and a punt, Texas went 80 yards on a drive keyed by Raleek Brown's 47-yard run, Alex January blocked a 58-yard field goal, and Jelani McDonald intercepted Trinidad Chambliss in the end zone with 2 seconds left. Texas had no sacks, but intercepted three passes, all of them inside its own 30.
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Final
Texas
10
14
0
10
34
Ole Miss
3
0
14
10
27
The five factors: Texas won 3 of 5Efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers decide most college games
EfficiencyTexas
Success rate, every snap
38%Texas · 27 of 72
33%Ole Miss · 27 of 82
ExplosivenessTexas
Runs of 10+ and completions of 15+
11Texas · 15% of snaps
8Ole Miss · 10% of snaps
Field positionOle Miss
Average start of a possession
Own 27Texas · 15 possessions
Own 30Ole Miss · 15 possessions
Finishing drivesTexas
Points per trip past the opponent 40
5.7Texas · 34 pts on 6 trips
2.9Ole Miss · 20 pts on 7 trips
TurnoversOle Miss
Giveaways, and points scored off them
3Texas · 0 points off theirs
3Ole Miss · 7 points off ours
Texas won efficiency, explosiveness and finishing (5.7 points a trip to 2.9). The turnovers were 3 to 3, but Ole Miss scored 7 off them and Texas none, so that factor went to Ole Miss along with field position.
Game flowExpected points added up snap by snap, every possession, and every score
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Texas offense (+10.6)Ole Miss offense (-1.8)Possession scoredTurnover or downsPunt or end of halfThin lines: scores
Good signTexas' line climbs through the first half, drops sharply at the start of the third quarter (the 23-yard strip-sack) and rises again in the fourth. Ole Miss' line falls through the first half on two interceptions and climbs from halftime on.
Q1 8:27TexasGianni Spetic 23 Yd Field Goal3-0
Q1 6:01Ole MissLucas Carneiro 46 Yd Field Goal3-3
Q1 0:55TexasArch Manning 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)10-3
Q4 8:04TexasArch Manning 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)31-24
Q4 2:25TexasGianni Spetic 33 Yd Field Goal34-24
Q4 1:22Ole MissLucas Carneiro 39 Yd Field Goal34-27
The moments that decided it7 plays and drives, in order
Q1 4:42Texas 3-3
Takeaway
Cryer answers an interception
One play after Manning was intercepted at the Texas 33, Justin Cryer picked off Chambliss at the Texas 26.
Q1 1:49Texas 3-3
Run
Three touchdowns in three drives
A 43-yard throw to Wingo keyed a 60-yard drive that Manning finished himself. Wingo's 50-yard catch and Terry's 2-yard run followed. 24-3.
Q2 1:41Texas 24-3
Takeaway
Biles at the goal line
Ole Miss' 12-play, 82-yard drive reached the Texas 2. On 4th-and-2 Rasheem Biles intercepted Chambliss.
Q3 13:28Texas 24-3
Turnover
A 23-yard strip-sack touchdown
On the first Texas possession of the second half, which started at its own 12 after a kickoff penalty, Manning was sacked from the 23 into the end zone and Kam Franklin recovered for an Ole Miss touchdown. 24-10.
Q4 13:57Texas 24-17
Tied
24-24
Horatio Fields' 27-yard catch tied it. Manning was intercepted on the next possession, but Ole Miss could not score off it.
Q4 10:47Texas 24-24
Winning drive
Brown, 47 yards
Raleek Brown's run from the Texas 21 set up Manning's 1-yard touchdown. 31-24 at 8:04.
Q4 6:25Texas 31-24
Block
January blocks a 58-yarder
Alex January blocked Lucas Carneiro's attempt. Spetic's 33-yard field goal made it 34-24; after an Ole Miss field goal, McDonald's end-zone interception ended the game.
Quarter by quarter
Qtr
Points
Texas success
EPA/play
Ole Miss success
EPA/play
Q1
10-3
48% 21 snaps
+0.12
19% 16
-0.39
Q2
14-0
35% 17 snaps
+0.30
24% 21
-0.24
Q3
0-14
22% 18 snaps
-0.16
43% 14
+0.15
Q4
10-10
44% 16 snaps
+0.36
42% 31
+0.24
The third quarter was Texas' worst third quarter of the season: 4 of 18 successful, -0.16 expected points a play, the strip-sack touchdown and no points. Ole Miss' offense went from 19 and 24% in the first half to 43 and 42% in the second, when it scored 24.
Team stats
Texas
Ole Miss
Total yards
419
363
Plays
72
82
Yards per play
5.8
4.4
Expected points per play
+0.15
-0.02
Passing
18 of 30, 212 yds
25 of 52, 250 yds
Dropback success
28% (32)
36% (53)
Rushing (sacks included)
42 for 207
30 for 113
Run success
45% (40)
28% (29)
Sacks allowed
2 (6% of dropbacks)
0 (0%)
Third down
3 of 13
6 of 18
First downs
23
23
Penalties
14 for 134
8 for 58
Turnovers
3
3
Three-and-outs
3 of 15
5 of 15
Possession
34:57
25:03
What Texas did well, and what it didn't
What went well
The first half. Three straight touchdown drives of 60, 61 and 62 yards, and a 24-3 lead.
The running game. 207 yards and +0.31 expected points a carry, Texas' best ground game in SEC play. Brown had 157.
Takeaways at the right time. Three interceptions: one right after a Texas turnover, one on 4th-and-2 at the Texas 2, one in the end zone to end the game.
Finishing. Six trips past the Ole Miss 40, 34 points. Ole Miss needed seven trips for 20.
What didn't
The third quarter. 22% success, the strip-sack touchdown and three punts. A 24-3 lead became a tie.
The passing game. 28% dropback success; the big completions to Wingo were most of it.
Turnovers. Three, and the strip-sack was returned for a touchdown.
Penalties. 14 for 134 yards; two pass-interference flags came on one Ole Miss touchdown drive in the third, and another on the tying drive.
No pass rush. Zero sacks on 53 Ole Miss dropbacks.
Why Texas wonThe contributing factors, most important first
1. Finishing. 34 points on six trips; Ole Miss' seven trips produced 20, with the goal-line interception and the blocked field goal taking away as many as 10 more.
2. The fourth-quarter answer. After 21 straight Ole Miss points, the 80-yard drive and the field goal.
3. The running game. 207 yards kept Texas moving on a night the passing game did not.
Top performersFrom the box score
Texas
Raleek Brown RB
23 carries, 157 yds
The 47-yard run on the winning drive; his biggest game of the season.
Ryan Wingo WR
7 catches, 111 yds, 1 TD
The 50-yard touchdown and a 43-yarder.
Arch Manning QB
18 of 30, 212 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 rushing TD
Two short touchdown runs and three turnovers.
Jelani McDonald S
12 tackles, 1 INT
The game-ending interception.
Rasheem Biles LB
4 tackles, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 4 hurries
The goal-line interception.
Alex January DL
Blocked FG
The 58-yard attempt that would have cut it to 31-27.
Ole Miss
Trinidad Chambliss QB
25 of 52, 250 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
4.8 yards an attempt.
Horatio Fields WR
3 catches, 50 yds, 2 TD
Both second-half touchdown catches.
Jalyn Crawford DB
2 INT
HomerProof keys for Ole Miss, graded
2 Hit0 Split2 Miss
Miss
Move the completion point to the middle. Before the game: Manning's short-middle throws have worked 67% of the time at +1.00 expected points (30 throws), his best area. His most common throw, short right, works 39% (56). Result: Share of Texas throws to the short middle: 14.3% of throws (target at least 25% of throws).
Hit
Make them kick. Before the game: Ole Miss succeeds on 60.5% of its red-zone snaps, the best Texas has faced. The Texas defense allows 35% there. Result: Ole Miss points per trip past the 40: 2.9 points (target at most 4.0 points).
Miss
Fix the third quarter. Before the game: Texas is at 32% success in third quarters through six games and was outscored in the third by Oklahoma and Florida after leading both at halftime. Result: Texas third-quarter success: 22.2% (target at least 40%).
Hit
Protect Manning. Before the game: Texas has allowed a sack on 9.6% of dropbacks, with Florida's five the latest. Ole Miss' defense gets one on 5.0%. Result: Sacks per Texas dropback: 6.2% (target at most 7%).
Graded on the full game, misses included.
Carry into Mississippi State: the third quarter has now cost Texas in four SEC games. The short middle, Manning's best throw, was only 14% of his throws here.
Every snap is counted, garbage time included, so a few rates differ slightly from tables that leave it out. Sacks count as dropbacks, not runs. A play is a success if it gains 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or all of them on 3rd and 4th. Expected points per play measure how much each snap changed the value of the possession. Points by quarter and by possession reconcile to the final score. Built from public sources.
Sat, Oct 17DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumTexas now 4-2 · 1-2 SECLine Texas -13.5 · missed by 16.5
Florida held the ball for 38 minutes, and two failed fourth-and-shorts became 14 points
Texas led 17-3 midway through the second quarter on Raleek Brown's 32-yard run, a Gianni Spetic field goal and Ryan Niblett's 63-yard punt-return touchdown. Florida outscored Texas 24-7 the rest of the way by keeping the ball: it ran 81 plays to Texas' 50, held possession for 38:11 and converted 10 of 21 third and fourth downs. Two Texas fourth-and-short attempts, a 4th-and-1 at midfield before halftime and a 4th-and-2 at its own 48 in the fourth, were stopped, and Florida scored touchdowns after both. The last Texas possession ended with 2:03 left when Manning was strip-sacked at the Texas 39.
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Final
Texas
10
7
0
7
24
Florida
0
10
7
10
27
The five factors: Texas won 3 of 5Efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers decide most college games
EfficiencyTexas
Success rate, every snap
42%Texas · 21 of 50
35%Florida · 28 of 81
ExplosivenessTexas
Runs of 10+ and completions of 15+
7Texas · 14% of snaps
5Florida · 6% of snaps
Field positionFlorida
Average start of a possession
Own 24Texas · 11 possessions
Own 34Florida · 12 possessions
Finishing drivesTexas
Points per trip past the opponent 40
5.7Texas · 17 pts on 3 trips
3.9Florida · 27 pts on 7 trips
TurnoversFlorida
Giveaways, and points scored off them
1Texas · 0 points off theirs
0Florida · 0 points off ours
Texas won efficiency (42% to 35%) and finishing (5.7 points a trip to 3.9) and lost the game anyway, because Florida had 7 trips to Texas' 3. Field position (own 24 against own 34) and the turnover margin went to Florida. The factors explain a close game; the snap count explains the loss.
Game flowExpected points added up snap by snap, every possession, and every score
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Texas offense (-6.3)Florida offense (+8.3)Possession scoredTurnover or downsPunt or end of halfThin lines: scores
MixedTexas' line climbs on the first two drives and then falls for most of the game, with the two fourth-down stops and the late strip-sack as the biggest drops. Florida's line rises slowly and steadily, an offense living on long, patient drives.
Q1 11:42TexasRaleek Brown 32 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7-0
Q1 6:42TexasGianni Spetic 38 Yd Field Goal10-0
Q2 13:48FloridaPatrick Durkin 45 Yd Field Goal10-3
Q2 11:27TexasRyan Niblett 63 Yd Punt Return (Gianni Spetic Kick)17-3
Q2 0:18FloridaLacota Dippre 7 Yd pass from Tramell Jones Jr. (Patrick Durkin Kick)17-10
Q3 6:50FloridaLacota Dippre 8 Yd pass from Tramell Jones Jr. (Patrick Durkin Kick)17-17
Q4 10:40FloridaPatrick Durkin 28 Yd Field Goal17-20
Q4 6:22FloridaJadan Baugh 11 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)17-27
The moments that decided it7 plays and drives, in order
Q1 11:48Texas 0-0
Explosive
Brown, 32 yards to the end zone
The 7-play, 75-yard opening drive ended with Raleek Brown's run on 2nd-and-4. A field goal on the next drive made it 10-0.
Q2 11:27Texas 10-3
Return TD
Niblett, 63 yards
Ryan Niblett returned a punt for a touchdown. 17-3.
Q2 2:44Texas 17-3
Fourth down
Fourth-and-1 at midfield
Hollywood Smothers was stopped for a 1-yard loss. Florida converted a 4th-and-12 on the way and scored with 18 seconds left. 17-10 at halftime.
Q3 14:53Texas 17-10
Long drive
15 plays, 8 minutes, a tie game
Florida's first possession of the second half went 69 yards and ended on an 8-yard touchdown pass on 3rd-and-3. Texas had 6 snaps in the third quarter.
Q4 8:34Texas 17-20
Fourth down
Fourth-and-2 at the Texas 48
Manning was stopped for a 3-yard loss. Florida went 45 yards in six plays for a 27-17 lead.
Q4 5:24Texas 17-27
Response
Mosley, 62 yards on 4th-and-6
Emmett Mosley's catch on fourth down set up Cam Coleman's 9-yard touchdown. 24-27 with 4:21 left.
Q4 2:03Texas 24-27
Turnover
A strip-sack ends it
Texas took over at its own 46 with 2:27 left. On 2nd-and-8, Manning was sacked for 9 yards by Myles Graham and lost the ball. The costliest play of the game, -6.0 expected points.
Quarter by quarter
Qtr
Points
Texas success
EPA/play
Florida success
EPA/play
Q1
10-0
58% 19 snaps
+0.32
18% 11
-0.06
Q2
7-10
33% 12 snaps
-0.40
33% 24
+0.14
Q3
0-7
33% 6 snaps
-0.41
36% 22
+0.24
Q4
7-10
31% 13 snaps
-0.39
42% 24
+0.01
Texas' offense was at 58% in the first quarter and 31 to 33% in each of the next three. It ran only 6 snaps in the third quarter, because Florida's opening drive of the half took 15 plays and 8 minutes. Florida's offense improved every quarter, from 18% to 42%.
Team stats
Texas
Florida
Total yards
278
313
Plays
50
81
Yards per play
5.6
3.9
Expected points per play
-0.13
+0.10
Passing
14 of 20, 173 yds
22 of 35, 155 yds
Dropback success
40% (25)
36% (36)
Rushing (sacks included)
30 for 105
46 for 158
Run success
44% (25)
33% (45)
Sacks allowed
5 (20% of dropbacks)
1 (3%)
Third down
2 of 10
8 of 19
First downs
13
21
Penalties
1 for 15
7 for 55
Turnovers
1
0
Three-and-outs
3 of 11
4 of 12
Possession
21:49
38:11
What Texas did well, and what it didn't
What went well
The start. 11 of 19 successful in the first quarter, a touchdown and a field goal on the first two drives.
No big plays allowed. Florida had 5 explosive plays on 81 snaps (6%) and its longest gain was 17 yards.
Finishing what it had. Three trips past the Florida 40, 17 points.
Special teams. Niblett's touchdown, a week after a blocked punt.
What didn't
Two failed fourth-and-shorts at or behind midfield, both followed by Florida touchdowns.
Third down defense. Florida converted 10 of 21 third and fourth downs, all 5 with 3 or fewer to go.
Possession. 38:11 for Florida and 81 plays to 50; Texas had 6 snaps in the third quarter.
Protection. 5 sacks on 25 dropbacks, the last one the game-ending fumble.
The running game per play. Run success was fine (44%) but the runs lost 0.28 expected points each: two fourth-down runs were stopped for losses at or behind midfield.
Why Texas lostThe contributing factors, most important first
1. Florida had the ball. 81 snaps to 50, seven trips past the Texas 40 to three.
2. The fourth-and-shorts. Two stops at or behind midfield turned into 14 Florida points in a three-point loss.
3. Third downs. Florida kept its drives alive at a 48% clip, and Texas went 2 of 10 on its own third downs.
Top performersFrom the box score
Texas
Raleek Brown RB
8 carries, 47 yds, 1 TD
The 32-yard touchdown run.
Emmett Mosley V WR
2 catches, 76 yds
The 62-yard 4th-and-6 catch.
Ryan Niblett PR
2 returns, 80 yds, 1 TD
The 63-yard punt-return touchdown.
Colin Simmons EDGE
8 tackles, 1 sack, 4 TFL
Justin Cryer LB
11 tackles
Team high.
Florida
Jadan Baugh RB
25 carries, 91 yds, 1 TD
The workhorse of the possession game.
Tramell Jones Jr. QB
22 of 35, 155 yds, 2 TD · 10 carries, 41 yds
Short throws and third-down conversions, both touchdowns to Lacota Dippre.
Myles Graham LB
7 tackles, 1 sack
The game-ending strip-sack.
HomerProof keys for Florida, graded
1 Hit1 Split2 Miss
Split
Run the ball. Before the game: Florida's defense stops only 12.5% of runs at or behind the line and allows 44.5% success on the ground. Texas runs have worked 46% of the time. Result: Texas run success: 44% (target at least 45%).
Miss
Fix the third quarter. Before the game: Texas sits at 32% success in third quarters over five games. Florida's defense has allowed 55% in the third (75 snaps), its worst quarter. Result: Texas third-quarter success: 33.3% (target at least 40%).
Hit
No easy explosives. Before the game: Florida produces an explosive play on 17% of snaps, with deep-middle throws working 83% of the time (6). Texas has allowed explosives on under 10% of snaps. Result: Florida explosive-play rate: 6.2% (target at most 12%).
Miss
Get off the field on third. Before the game: Florida converts 63% on 3rd-and-short and 32% on 3rd-and-long. Texas' defense allows 13% on 3rd-and-long, the best situation it has. Result: Florida third and fourth down success: 47.6% (target at most 35%).
Graded on the full game, misses included.
Carry into Ole Miss: Texas' third-quarter offense has been at 33% or worse four games running. Ole Miss succeeds on 60% of its red-zone snaps, the best Texas has faced.
Every snap is counted, garbage time included, so a few rates differ slightly from tables that leave it out. Sacks count as dropbacks, not runs. A play is a success if it gains 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or all of them on 3rd and 4th. Expected points per play measure how much each snap changed the value of the possession. Points by quarter and by possession reconcile to the final score. Built from public sources.
Sat, Oct 10Cotton BowlTexas now 4-1 · 1-1 SECLine Texas -7.5 · missed by 10.5
Oklahoma's offense scored 13 points; 14 more came on returns
The Texas defense did its job: Oklahoma's offense managed 238 yards, converted 2 of 13 third downs, went 0 of 7 needing 7 or more and scored 13 points on its own. Texas lost anyway, 27-24, because Oklahoma scored on a blocked punt in the second quarter and a 42-yard interception return in the fourth, and kicked the winning 47-yard field goal on the final play after Manning's second interception with 19 seconds left. Texas led 17-7 at halftime and was outscored 20-7 after it; its offense ran 10 third-quarter snaps and punted three times. A roughing-the-passer flag that wiped out a Bo Mascoe interception at the Texas 14 led to the touchdown that tied it.
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Final
Texas
7
10
0
7
24
Oklahoma
0
7
3
17
27
The five factors: Texas won 4 of 5Efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers decide most college games
EfficiencyTexas
Success rate, every snap
36%Texas · 23 of 63
35%Oklahoma · 20 of 57
ExplosivenessTexas
Runs of 10+ and completions of 15+
12Texas · 19% of snaps
3Oklahoma · 5% of snaps
Field positionTexas
Average start of a possession
Own 28Texas · 15 possessions
Own 26Oklahoma · 14 possessions
Finishing drivesTexas
Points per trip past the opponent 40
4.8Texas · 24 pts on 5 trips
3.2Oklahoma · 13 pts on 4 trips
TurnoversOklahoma
Giveaways, and points scored off them
2Texas · 0 points off theirs
0Oklahoma · 10 points off ours
Texas won efficiency, explosiveness, field position and finishing. It lost the game on the factor it lost by the most: turnovers, 2 to 0, and 10 Oklahoma points off them. With the blocked punt, 17 of Oklahoma's 27 points came from Texas turnovers and special-teams breakdowns.
Game flowExpected points added up snap by snap, every possession, and every score
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Texas offense (+1.6)Oklahoma offense (+0.0)Possession scoredTurnover or downsPunt or end of halfThin lines: scores
MixedTexas' line rises through the second quarter (two touchdown passes) and falls in two big steps in the fourth: the pick-six and the final interception. Oklahoma's line is flat to slightly positive all game, an average offense helped by the things that do not show up here.
Q4 6:32TexasJermaine Bishop Jr. 15 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)24-24
Q4 0:00OklahomaTate Sandell 47 Yd Field Goal24-27
The moments that decided it7 plays and drives, in order
Q1 7:04Texas 0-0
Explosive
Coleman, 41 yards on one play
After two Texas three-and-outs, Manning hit Cam Coleman for a one-play, 41-yard touchdown. 7-0.
Q2 14:11Texas 7-0
Return TD
A blocked punt
After another three-and-out, Danny Okoye blocked Mac Chiumento's punt at the Texas 8 and Dakoda Fields recovered in the end zone. 7-7.
Q2 10:09Texas 7-7
Touchdown
Wingo, 34 yards on 3rd-and-5
A 9-play, 75-yard answer that included a 4th-and-1 conversion by Hollywood Smothers. Spetic added a 23-yard field goal before the half. 17-7.
Q3 2:13Texas 17-10
Flag
An interception wiped out
Bo Mascoe intercepted Isaiah Sategna III at the Texas 14, but Rasheem Biles was flagged for roughing the passer. A pass-interference flag on 3rd-and-9 later in the drive put the ball at the 2, and Lloyd Avant tied it at 14:48 of the fourth.
Q4 10:07Texas 17-17
Return TD
A pick-six
On 2nd-and-13 from the Texas 20, Peyton Bowen intercepted Manning and returned it 42 yards. Cost: 6.9 expected points, the costliest play of the game.
Q4 6:32Texas 17-24
Response
Bishop ties it
A 42-yard throw to Coleman set up Jermaine Bishop Jr.'s 15-yard touchdown catch. 24-24.
Q4 0:19Texas 24-24
Turnover
The last interception
After Spetic missed from 53 with 1:54 left, Texas got the ball back and reached the Oklahoma 49. Manning, hurried, was intercepted by Courtland Guillory, and Tate Sandell kicked a 47-yard field goal on the final play.
Quarter by quarter
Qtr
Points
Texas success
EPA/play
Oklahoma success
EPA/play
Q1
7-0
25% 12 snaps
-0.10
7% 15
-0.32
Q2
10-7
47% 19 snaps
+0.43
46% 11
+0.28
Q3
0-3
30% 10 snaps
-0.17
47% 17
+0.04
Q4
7-17
36% 22 snaps
-0.17
43% 14
+0.07
Both offenses were poor for long stretches. Texas was at 25% in the first quarter, 47% in the second and 30% in the third. Oklahoma's offense was at 7% in the first quarter and 43 to 47% after it.
Team stats
Texas
Oklahoma
Total yards
382
238
Plays
63
57
Yards per play
6.1
4.2
Expected points per play
+0.03
0.00
Passing
19 of 31, 260 yds
18 of 26, 155 yds
Dropback success
33% (33)
38% (29)
Rushing (sacks included)
32 for 122
31 for 83
Run success
40% (30)
32% (28)
Sacks allowed
2 (6% of dropbacks)
3 (10%)
Third down
3 of 14
2 of 13
First downs
16
14
Penalties
8 for 61
7 for 62
Turnovers
2
0
Three-and-outs
6 of 15
7 of 14
Possession
29:29
30:31
What Texas did well, and what it didn't
What went well
Defense against the offense. 35% success allowed, 3 explosive plays, 0 of 7 on third or fourth down needing 7 or more. Oklahoma's offense scored 13.
The deep ball. Coleman's 41-yard touchdown and 42-yard catch, Wingo's 34-yard touchdown: Texas had 12 explosive plays to Oklahoma's 3.
Protection held up. 2 sacks on 33 dropbacks, after six at Tennessee.
The short middle. Oklahoma's best throw went 1 of 4 there.
What didn't
Seventeen points from turnovers and special teams. The blocked punt (7), the pick-six (7) and the final interception (3).
Three-and-outs. Seven of them on 15 possessions, one of which ended in the blocked punt.
The second half. Texas was outscored 20-7, ran 10 third-quarter snaps and punted on all three of its third-quarter possessions.
Flags at the worst time. The roughing call that erased an interception and the pass interference at the 9 led to Oklahoma's only offensive touchdown. Texas flags cost 12.0 expected points to Oklahoma's 3.0.
The missed 53-yard field goal with 1:54 left.
Why Texas lostThe contributing factors, most important first
1. Turnovers and the blocked punt. 17 Oklahoma points came from plays its offense did not make.
2. Penalties. The two defensive flags on the tying drive, against a defense that otherwise held Oklahoma's offense to 6 points.
3. A stalled second half. One touchdown drive after halftime, and a quarter with three punts on 10 snaps.
Top performersFrom the box score
Texas
Cam Coleman WR
5 catches, 110 yds, 1 TD
The 41-yard touchdown and the 42-yarder that set up the tying score.
Ryan Wingo WR
2 catches, 57 yds, 1 TD
Arch Manning QB
19 of 31, 260 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Three touchdowns and both late interceptions, one returned for a touchdown.
Rasheem Biles LB
12 tackles, 2 TFL
Also drew the roughing flag that erased the Mascoe interception.
Derrek Cooper RB
8 carries, 41 yds
Long of 16.
Oklahoma
Peyton Bowen S
7 tackles, 42-yd INT return TD
Lloyd Avant RB
10 carries, 72 yds, 1 TD
The 42-yard run on 3rd-and-2 was Oklahoma's biggest offensive play.
John Mateer QB
18 of 26, 155 yds
No touchdown passes; 6.0 yards an attempt.
HomerProof keys for Oklahoma, graded
3 Hit0 Split1 Miss
Hit
Take away the short middle. Before the game: Oklahoma's short-middle throws are its best (58%, +0.81 on 12), and the short middle is the one area Texas' defense gives up (68% success allowed on 19 throws). Result: Oklahoma success on short-middle throws: 25% (target at most 45%).
Miss
Fix the third quarter. Before the game: Texas has succeeded on 32% of third-quarter snaps through four games, against 45 to 57% in the others. Result: Texas third-quarter success: 30% (target at least 40%).
Hit
Protect Manning. Before the game: Six sacks at Tennessee pushed Texas to 8.3% of dropbacks. Oklahoma's defense sacks the quarterback on 9.7%. Result: Sacks per Texas dropback: 6.1% (target at most 7%).
Hit
Make them convert long. Before the game: Oklahoma has converted 9% of its third and fourth downs needing 7 or more. Texas' defense allows 16% there. Result: Oklahoma success on 3rd/4th and 7 or more: 0% (target at most 20%).
Graded on the full game, misses included.
Carry into Florida: Texas' third-quarter offense has been at 30% or worse three games running (25, 25 and 30% here). Florida's defense has given up 55% success in third quarters this season.
Every snap is counted, garbage time included, so a few rates differ slightly from tables that leave it out. Sacks count as dropbacks, not runs. A play is a success if it gains 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or all of them on 3rd and 4th. Expected points per play measure how much each snap changed the value of the possession. Points by quarter and by possession reconcile to the final score. Built from public sources.
Sat, Sep 26Neyland StadiumTexas now 4-0 · 1-0 SECLine Texas -5.5 · missed by 2.5
Ten sacks won it on a night the offense was sacked six times
The Texas defense sacked Faizon Brandon 10 times, 5.5 of them by Colin Simmons, a school record, and held Tennessee to 30% success and -0.42 expected points a dropback. That carried an offense that was sacked 6 times on 25 dropbacks, went three-and-out five times and was successful on 1 of its 9 snaps in the second quarter. Tennessee's only touchdowns came on a 57-yard punt return and on an 80-yard drive with 1:22 left that made it 20-17. Tennessee then recovered an onside kick, and the defense held one more time.
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Final
Texas
7
3
3
7
20
Tennessee
3
0
7
7
17
The five factors: Texas won 4 of 5Efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers decide most college games
EfficiencyTexas
Success rate, every snap
36%Texas · 20 of 55
30%Tennessee · 23 of 77
ExplosivenessTexas
Runs of 10+ and completions of 15+
9Texas · 16% of snaps
6Tennessee · 8% of snaps
Field positionTexas
Average start of a possession
Own 33Texas · 12 possessions
Own 23Tennessee · 13 possessions
Finishing drivesTexas
Points per trip past the opponent 40
4.0Texas · 20 pts on 5 trips
3.3Tennessee · 10 pts on 3 trips
TurnoversTennessee
Giveaways, and points scored off them
2Texas · 0 points off theirs
0Tennessee · 0 points off ours
Texas won four of five. The one it lost was turnovers: Texas gave away an interception and the onside kick, Tennessee nothing. Field position still went to Texas, because Mac Chiumento's seven punts averaged 46.1 yards and Tennessee started at its own 23 on average.
Game flowExpected points added up snap by snap, every possession, and every score
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Texas offense (+0.9)Tennessee offense (-12.8)Possession scoredTurnover or downsPunt or end of halfThin lines: scores
Good signTexas' line spikes on the opening touchdown drive, falls through the sacks of the second and third quarters and recovers on the fourth-quarter touchdown drive, then drops at the very end with the 12-yard sack and the recovered onside kick. Tennessee's line falls for most of the game; the late rise is the 80-yard drive.
Q1 10:58TexasRaleek Brown 9 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7-0
Q1 7:40TennesseeCooper Ranvier 33 Yd Field Goal7-3
Q2 14:29TexasGianni Spetic 22 Yd Field Goal10-3
Q3 11:14TennesseeQua Moss 57 Yd Punt Return (Cooper Ranvier Kick)10-10
Q3 9:00TexasGianni Spetic 44 Yd Field Goal13-10
Q4 5:41TexasRaleek Brown 4 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)20-10
The moments that decided it7 plays and drives, in order
Q1 15:00Texas 0-0
Touchdown
75 yards on the opening drive
A 43-yard throw to Emmett Mosley over the middle set up Raleek Brown's 9-yard run. 7-0.
Q2 12:13Texas 10-3
Turnover
An interception at the Tennessee 4
Manning's throw on 2nd-and-5 near midfield was picked by Kayin Lee. Three straight Texas possessions after that went three-and-out.
Q2 1:54Texas 10-3
Stop
Fourth-and-7 at the Texas 34
Graceson Littleton broke up the deep throw to end a 15-play Tennessee drive.
Q3 11:14Texas 10-3
Return TD
A 57-yard punt return ties it
After a three-and-out from its own 6, Texas punted and Qua Moss returned it for a touchdown. 10-10.
Q4 9:23Texas 13-10
Touchdown
Wingo on 3rd-and-8, Brown from the 4
Ryan Wingo's 18-yard catch on 3rd-and-8 kept the 8-play, 60-yard drive alive; Brown scored. 20-10 with 5:41 left.
Q4 4:56Texas 20-10
Stop
January on fourth down
Alex January sacked Brandon on 4th-and-3 at the Tennessee 41, and Texas got the ball back up 10.
Q4 1:22Texas 20-17
Hold
An onside kick, then one more stop
Tennessee scored with 1:22 left and recovered the onside kick. A face mask on 3rd-and-19 extended the drive, but the last throw fell incomplete with 3 seconds left.
Quarter by quarter
Qtr
Points
Texas success
EPA/play
Tennessee success
EPA/play
Q1
7-3
50% 18 snaps
+0.38
18% 11
-0.25
Q2
3-0
11% 9 snaps
-0.69
32% 25
-0.17
Q3
3-7
25% 16 snaps
-0.04
27% 15
-0.17
Q4
7-7
50% 12 snaps
+0.08
35% 26
-0.13
Texas' offense was at 50% in the first and fourth quarters and 11% and 25% in the middle two. The defense was the constant: no Tennessee quarter above 35% success.
Team stats
Texas
Tennessee
Total yards
262
221
Plays
55
77
Yards per play
4.8
2.9
Expected points per play
+0.02
-0.17
Passing
14 of 19, 201 yds
18 of 32, 151 yds
Dropback success
44% (25)
26% (42)
Rushing (sacks included)
36 for 61
44 for 70
Run success
30% (30)
34% (35)
Sacks allowed
6 (24% of dropbacks)
10 (24%)
Third down
3 of 12
4 of 16
First downs
14
22
Penalties
11 for 115
7 for 55
Turnovers
2
0
Three-and-outs
5 of 12
2 of 13
Possession
28:37
31:23
What Texas did well, and what it didn't
What went well
The pass rush. 10 sacks on 42 dropbacks, and Tennessee's passing game at -0.42 expected points a dropback.
Run defense. Tennessee's runs succeeded 34% of the time, against 52% in its first three games.
Two fourth-down stops. At the Texas 34 in the second quarter and at the Tennessee 41 in the fourth.
The two touchdown drives. 75 yards to start and the 60-yard touchdown drive that made it two scores.
What didn't
Protection. 6 sacks on 25 dropbacks (24%), the worst rate of the season, four of them on first or second down.
Third-and-long, over and over. Nine of Texas' 12 third downs needed 7 or more yards; it converted 1 of those 9.
Five three-and-outs and 1 of 9 successful plays in the second quarter.
Special teams. The 57-yard punt-return touchdown and the recovered onside kick both came against the kicking units.
Penalties. 11 for 115 yards; the late face mask on 3rd-and-19 nearly cost the game.
Why Texas wonThe contributing factors, most important first
1. The pass rush. Ten sacks held Tennessee's offense to 10 points, on three trips past the Texas 40.
2. Fourth-down defense. Two stops that ended Tennessee's best drives.
3. Enough offense at the ends of the game. Two touchdown drives, the first and the next-to-last.
Top performersFrom the box score
Texas
Colin Simmons EDGE
9 tackles, 5.5 sacks
A school record for sacks in a game, after a stat review credited him with the half sack.
Rasheem Biles LB
13 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFL
Team high in tackles.
Raleek Brown RB
17 carries, 67 yds, 2 TD
Both Texas touchdowns.
Ryan Wingo WR
6 catches, 74 yds
The 3rd-and-8 conversion on the clinching drive.
Arch Manning QB
14 of 19, 201 yds, 1 INT
10.6 yards an attempt when he had time; sacked six times.
Tennessee
Faizon Brandon QB
17 of 29, 145 yds, 1 TD · 23 carries, 2 yds
The 2 rushing yards include the 10 sacks.
Qua Moss PR
57-yd punt return TD
Tyree Weathersby DL
6 tackles, 2.5 sacks
Led a Tennessee rush that got Manning six times.
HomerProof keys for Tennessee, graded
1 Hit0 Split3 Miss
Miss
Keep Manning upright. Before the game: Tennessee sacks the quarterback on 11.8% of dropbacks, the best pass rush Texas has seen. Texas has allowed a sack on 4.2% of dropbacks against softer fronts. Result: Sacks per Texas dropback: 24% (target at most 8%).
Hit
Stop the run. Before the game: Tennessee runs on 62% of its snaps and succeeds 52% of the time (+0.38 a carry); runs to the left have worked 70%. Texas has held opponents to 36% on the ground. Result: Tennessee run success: 34.3% (target at most 40%).
Miss
Stay out of third-and-long. Before the game: Tennessee's defense allows 16% success on 3rd-and-7 or more. Texas converts 89% on 3rd-and-short and 27% on 3rd-and-long, so the distance decides the drive. Result: Share of Texas third and fourth downs needing 7 or more: 75% (target at most 30%).
Miss
Win the third quarter. Before the game: Texas' offense has dropped to 35% success in third quarters (49 snaps) against 43 to 59% in the others. Tennessee's defense allowed 67% in the third so far, on a small sample (18 snaps). Result: Texas third-quarter success: 25% (target at least 42%).
Graded on the full game, misses included.
Carry into Oklahoma: Texas' third-quarter offense was at 25% for the second straight game, and the protection problem showed up for the first time.
Every snap is counted, garbage time included, so a few rates differ slightly from tables that leave it out. Sacks count as dropbacks, not runs. A play is a success if it gains 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or all of them on 3rd and 4th. Expected points per play measure how much each snap changed the value of the possession. Points by quarter and by possession reconcile to the final score. Built from public sources.
Sat, Sep 19DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumTexas now 3-0Line Texas -29.5 · missed by 5.5
The defense allowed six points; the offense settled for field goals
UTSA's offense managed 142 yards and 9 first downs, went three-and-out five times and converted 1 of 11 third downs. Its only points were two field goals, one after a 13-play drive and one after a Texas punt left it at the Texas 35. Texas ran the ball well (231 yards, 53% success) and held the ball for 36:51, but it reached the UTSA 40 eight times and scored three touchdowns: three trips ended in field goals, one in a turnover on downs at the UTSA 14 and one in the final whistle. That is why a 29.5-point favorite won by 24.
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Final
Texas
10
10
3
7
30
UTSA
3
0
3
0
6
The five factors: Texas won 5 of 5Efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers decide most college games
EfficiencyTexas
Success rate, every snap
47%Texas · 39 of 83
28%UTSA · 13 of 46
ExplosivenessTexas
Runs of 10+ and completions of 15+
11Texas · 13% of snaps
2UTSA · 4% of snaps
Field positionTexas
Average start of a possession
Own 36Texas · 13 possessions
Own 30UTSA · 11 possessions
Finishing drivesTexas
Points per trip past the opponent 40
3.8Texas · 30 pts on 8 trips
3.0UTSA · 6 pts on 2 trips
TurnoversTexas
Giveaways, and points scored off them
0Texas · 7 points off theirs
1UTSA · 0 points off ours
Texas won all five. The closest was finishing: 3.8 points a trip to UTSA's 3.0, the only Texas number that looks ordinary, and the one that kept the score from matching the play.
Game flowExpected points added up snap by snap, every possession, and every score
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Texas offense (+3.2)UTSA offense (-7.9)Possession scoredTurnover or downsPunt or end of halfThin lines: scores
Good signTexas' line rises early, sags through the second and third quarters (the two turnovers on downs) and recovers in the fourth with the Derrek Cooper touchdown drive. UTSA's line starts falling on the first-snap interception and never gets above zero.
Q4 8:57TexasDerrek Cooper 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)30-6
The moments that decided it6 plays and drives, in order
Q1 14:59Texas 0-0
Takeaway
Biles on UTSA's first snap
Rasheem Biles intercepted Owen McCown on the first play from scrimmage. Four plays later Manning found Cam Coleman for a 24-yard touchdown.
Q1 7:01Texas 7-3
Field goal
A 13-play drive for 3
Texas answered UTSA's field goal with 13 plays and 50 yards, converting 3rd-and-5 and 3rd-and-6 with throws to Coleman and Emmett Mosley, and settled for a 52-yarder.
Q2 8:32Texas 17-3
Fourth down
Fourth-and-6 at midfield
Texas went for it at its own 49 and threw incomplete. UTSA went three-and-out and punted, so it cost nothing on the scoreboard.
Q3 15:00Texas 20-3
Third quarter
Three-and-out, then a short field for UTSA
The first Texas possession of the second half lost 11 yards. After the punt UTSA started at the Texas 35 and kicked its second field goal.
Q3 0:11Texas 23-6
Turnover
Fourth-and-5 at the UTSA 14
An 8-play, 37-yard drive ended with an incomplete throw to Mosley at the 2. Cost: about 4 expected points, the costliest play of the night.
Q4 8:57Texas 23-6
Touchdown
66 yards for the last points
Cooper ran 10 yards on 3rd-and-2 to the 1 and scored on the next play.
Quarter by quarter
Qtr
Points
Texas success
EPA/play
UTSA success
EPA/play
Q1
10-3
44% 16 snaps
+0.30
47% 15
-0.25
Q2
10-0
58% 26 snaps
-0.04
18% 11
-0.17
Q3
3-3
25% 24 snaps
-0.26
9% 11
-0.20
Q4
7-0
65% 17 snaps
+0.34
33% 9
-0.01
The third quarter is the dip: 6 of 24 successful, -0.26 expected points a play, two punts, a field goal and a turnover on downs. Texas was at 58% in the second quarter and 65% in the fourth. UTSA's offense was below 20% success in the second and third quarters.
Team stats
Texas
UTSA
Total yards
400
142
Plays
83
46
Yards per play
4.8
3.1
Expected points per play
+0.04
-0.17
Passing
17 of 34, 169 yds
14 of 23, 70 yds
Dropback success
39% (36)
17% (24)
Rushing (sacks included)
49 for 231
24 for 72
Run success
53% (47)
41% (22)
Sacks allowed
1 (3% of dropbacks)
1 (4%)
Third down
7 of 17
1 of 11
First downs
27
9
Penalties
8 for 88
12 for 115
Turnovers
0
1
Three-and-outs
1 of 13
5 of 11
Possession
36:51
23:09
What Texas did well, and what it didn't
What went well
The defense. 28% success allowed (13 of 46), 142 yards, 1 of 11 on third down and 0 of 9 needing 7 or more. Five three-and-outs.
The running game. 231 yards on 49 carries and 53% success; runs to the left worked 7 of 12 times for 97 yards.
Ball control. 36:51 of possession and 83 snaps to UTSA's 46.
No turnovers. The first game of the season without one.
What didn't
Field goals instead of touchdowns. Eight trips past the UTSA 40, three touchdowns. Three ended in field goals, one on downs at the 14.
The passing game. 39% dropback success and -0.03 expected points a dropback; Manning averaged 5.0 yards an attempt.
The third quarter. 25% success (6 of 24), Texas' worst quarter of the night.
Penalties. 8 for 88 yards, including a block in the back that wiped out most of a 44-yard Ryan Niblett punt return.
Why Texas wonThe contributing factors, most important first
1. A shutdown defense. UTSA crossed the Texas 40 twice all night and scored field goals both times.
2. Possession. The running game kept UTSA's offense on the sideline for 37 minutes.
3. A turnover-free night. UTSA's one giveaway became 7 points; Texas gave none away.
Top performersFrom the box score
Texas
Hollywood Smothers RB
10 carries, 54 yds
Long of 18; 5.4 yards a carry.
Derrek Cooper RB
11 carries, 44 yds, 1 TD
The short-yardage back: the 10-yard run on 3rd-and-2 and the touchdown.
Cam Coleman WR
4 catches, 59 yds, 2 TD
Both Texas passing touchdowns.
Arch Manning QB
16 of 32, 161 yds, 2 TD · 10 carries, 53 yds
More useful running (20-yard long) than throwing on a night the passing game averaged 5 yards an attempt.
Rasheem Biles LB
4 tackles, 1 INT
The first-snap interception.
UTSA
Owen McCown QB
14 of 23, 70 yds, 1 INT
3.0 yards an attempt.
Will Henderson III RB
10 carries, 38 yds
Brandon Tucker LB
11 tackles, 1 sack, 1.5 TFL
The only defender who got to Manning.
HomerProof keys for UTSA, graded
2 Hit1 Split1 Miss
Split
Wall off the middle. Before the game: UTSA's runs succeeded 59% of the time in its first two games, 62% up the middle (29 carries). Texas has held opponents to 34% on the ground. Result: UTSA run success: 40.9% (target at most 40%).
Hit
Run it back at them. Before the game: UTSA stops only 10% of runs at or behind the line and has allowed 43% success on the ground. Texas runs have worked 52% of the time so far. Result: Texas run success: 53.2% (target at least 50%).
Hit
Get them to third-and-long. Before the game: UTSA converts 70% on 3rd-and-short but 10% on 3rd-and-7 or more. Win first and second down and its offense stalls. Result: UTSA third and fourth down success: 9.1% (target at most 35%).
Miss
Finish with touchdowns. Before the game: Texas succeeds on 46% of its red-zone snaps through two games. Against a UTSA defense that has allowed 40% success inside the 20, scoring touchdowns rather than field goals is the difference between a win and a cover. Result: Texas trips past the 40 ending in a touchdown: 37.5% (target at least 60%).
Graded on the full game, misses included.
Carry into Tennessee: Tennessee's defense sacks the quarterback on 11.8% of dropbacks. Texas' third-quarter dip (25% here) is worth watching on the road.
Every snap is counted, garbage time included, so a few rates differ slightly from tables that leave it out. Sacks count as dropbacks, not runs. A play is a success if it gains 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or all of them on 3rd and 4th. Expected points per play measure how much each snap changed the value of the possession. Points by quarter and by possession reconcile to the final score. Built from public sources.
Sat, Sep 12DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumTexas now 2-0Line Texas -2.5 · missed by 1.5
Down 23-3 in the third quarter, Texas scored touchdowns on its last three possessions
Texas lost the ball on the first snap of the game and again on its next possession, and Ohio State turned the gifts into 10 points. It was 20-3 at the half and 23-3 with 8:09 left in the third. After one more punt, Texas went 91, 72 and 73 yards for touchdowns on its last three possessions, the last a 1-yard Hollywood Smothers run with 25 seconds left, and Graceson Littleton intercepted Ohio State's final throw. The defense kept it possible: Ohio State reached the Texas 40 eight times and scored 23 points, with one stop on downs at the Texas 12 and a missed 45-yard field goal. Texas reached the Ohio State 40 four times and scored 24.
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Final
Texas
0
3
0
21
24
Ohio State
10
10
3
0
23
The five factors: Texas won 2 of 5Efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers decide most college games
EfficiencyTexas
Success rate, every snap
47%Texas · 37 of 78
38%Ohio State · 24 of 63
ExplosivenessOhio State
Runs of 10+ and completions of 15+
11Texas · 14% of snaps
9Ohio State · 14% of snaps
Field positionOhio State
Average start of a possession
Own 21Texas · 11 possessions
Own 36Ohio State · 11 possessions
Finishing drivesTexas
Points per trip past the opponent 40
6.0Texas · 24 pts on 4 trips
2.9Ohio State · 23 pts on 8 trips
TurnoversOhio State
Giveaways, and points scored off them
2Texas · 0 points off theirs
1Ohio State · 10 points off ours
The factors split. Texas was more efficient (47% to 38%) and finished far better (6.0 points a trip to 2.9), and that decided it. Ohio State won explosiveness, led by four Jeremiah Smith catches, and won field position and turnovers: the first-snap fumble at the Texas 18 and the failed 4th-and-1 that handed Ohio State the ball at the Texas 49 both led to points.
Game flowExpected points added up snap by snap, every possession, and every score
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Texas offense (+4.6)Ohio State offense (+6.8)Possession scoredTurnover or downsPunt or end of halfThin lines: scores
ConcernTexas' line drops hard in the first five minutes (the fumble and the interception) and does not get back above zero until the fourth-quarter drives, which climb steeply. Ohio State's line rises through the first half on Smith's catches, peaks with his 43-yarder early in the third and drifts down from there.
Q1 12:04Ohio StateConnor Hawkins 26 Yd Field Goal0-3
Q1 5:39Ohio StateJa'Kobi Jackson 8 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)0-10
Q2 5:42TexasGianni Spetic 37 Yd Field Goal3-10
Q2 1:41Ohio StateConnor Hawkins 30 Yd Field Goal3-13
Q2 0:10Ohio StateJeremiah Smith 19 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Connor Hawkins Kick)3-20
Q3 8:09Ohio StateConnor Hawkins 48 Yd Field Goal3-23
Q4 7:14TexasHollywood Smothers 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)17-23
Q4 0:25TexasHollywood Smothers 1 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)24-23
The moments that decided it6 plays and drives, in order
Q1 14:55Texas 0-0
Turnover
A fumble on the first snap
Raleek Brown caught a pass behind the line and fumbled at the Texas 18. Ohio State kicked a field goal. On the next Texas possession Manning was intercepted, and Ohio State scored a touchdown. 10-0 after 9 minutes.
Q2 13:23Texas 10-0
Stop
Fourth-and-2 at the Texas 13
Ohio State's 10-play drive ended when Jelani McDonald and Hero Kanu stopped Ja'Kobi Jackson a yard short. Texas then drove 69 yards in 16 plays for its first points.
Q2 0:49Texas 3-13
Turnover
Fourth-and-1 at the Ohio State 41
Texas went for it near midfield and Ryan Wingo lost 10 yards, leaving Ohio State at the Texas 49, and Ohio State scored on a 19-yard throw to Jeremiah Smith with 10 seconds left. 20-3 at the half; the play cost 5.2 expected points, the costliest of the game.
Q3 5:47Texas 3-23
Response
91 yards in 15 plays
Starting at its own 9 after a muffed punt recovered by Kade Phillips, Texas converted a 4th-and-9 with a throw to Emaree Winston and survived an Emmett Mosley fumble it recovered. Wingo scored from 3.
Q4 12:46Texas 10-23
Response
72 yards, 13 plays
Mosley converted a 4th-and-6 with a 12-yard catch, and Smothers scored from 1. 17-23 with 7:14 left. Ohio State then missed a 45-yard field goal.
Q4 4:16Texas 17-23
Winning drive
73 yards, 12 plays, 25 seconds left
A 17-yard catch by Mosley on 2nd-and-8 kept it moving. Smothers fumbled at the 1 and Raleek Brown recovered; on the next snap Smothers scored. Littleton intercepted Ohio State's final throw.
Quarter by quarter
Qtr
Points
Texas success
EPA/play
Ohio State success
EPA/play
Q1
0-10
25% 8 snaps
-0.95
52% 21
+0.34
Q2
3-10
48% 23 snaps
-0.13
38% 16
+0.11
Q3
0-3
45% 20 snaps
+0.03
27% 15
-0.03
Q4
21-0
56% 27 snaps
+0.54
27% 11
-0.15
The first quarter was the worst of the season to that point: 2 successful plays on 8 snaps and two turnovers. The fourth was the best: 15 of 27 successful, +0.54 expected points a play, 21 points. The defense improved as the game went on, allowing 52% success in the first quarter and 27% in each of the last two.
Team stats
Texas
Ohio State
Total yards
336
372
Plays
78
63
Yards per play
4.3
5.9
Expected points per play
+0.06
+0.11
Passing
23 of 37, 195 yds
17 of 32, 278 yds
Dropback success
38% (37)
38% (34)
Rushing (sacks included)
41 for 141
31 for 94
Run success
56% (41)
38% (29)
Sacks allowed
2 (5% of dropbacks)
2 (6%)
Third down
9 of 16
6 of 14
First downs
25
19
Penalties
2 for 12
4 for 35
Turnovers
2
1
Three-and-outs
2 of 11
2 of 11
Possession
31:28
28:32
What Texas did well, and what it didn't
What went well
The fourth quarter. 15 of 27 plays successful, +0.54 expected points a play, three touchdown drives of 72 or more yards.
Running the ball. 56% run success (23 of 41), and 8 of 9 conversions on third and fourth down with 3 or fewer yards to go; the miss was the 4th-and-1 before halftime.
Defense past the 40. Ohio State reached the Texas 40 eight times and scored two touchdowns. The stop on 4th-and-2 at the 13 and the missed 45-yarder were worth at least 10 points.
Fourth downs on offense. The 4th-and-9 and 4th-and-6 conversions both came on touchdown drives.
What didn't
Two turnovers in five minutes. The fumble at the Texas 18 became a field goal, and the interception was followed by an 81-yard touchdown drive: 10 Ohio State points.
Explosive passes allowed. Ohio State turned 14% of its snaps into explosive plays, and Smith had 164 yards on 8 catches.
The 4th-and-1 at the Ohio State 41. A 10-yard loss, the ball at the Texas 49 and a touchdown the other way before halftime.
Passing efficiency. 38% dropback success and 5.3 yards an attempt. The comeback came on the ground and on fourth downs.
Why Texas wonThe contributing factors, most important first
1. Finishing. Four trips past the Ohio State 40, 24 points. Ohio State needed eight trips to score 23.
2. The defense after halftime. Ohio State managed 3 points and 27% success in the second half, which gave the offense time to come back.
3. Fourth downs. Two conversions on the touchdown drives, and the stop at the 13.
Top performersFrom the box score
Texas
Hollywood Smothers RB
21 carries, 74 yds, 2 TD
Both touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the winner with 25 seconds left.
Arch Manning QB
23 of 37, 195 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Slow start; touchdown drives on the last three possessions.
Emmett Mosley V WR
5 catches, 65 yds
The 4th-and-6 conversion and the 17-yarder that started the winning drive.
Justin Cryer LB
9 tackles, 2 QB hurries
Graceson Littleton DB
1 INT
The game-ending interception.
Ohio State
Jeremiah Smith WR
8 catches, 164 yds, 1 TD
Two 43-yard catches; four of Ohio State's seven explosive completions.
Julian Sayin QB
17 of 32, 278 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Bo Jackson RB
19 carries, 74 yds
Long of 11.
HomerProof keys for Ohio State, graded
2 Hit0 Split1 Miss
Miss
No free explosives. Before the game: Ohio State turned 27.5% of its snaps against Ball State into explosive plays, and Texas allowed one on 16% of Texas State's snaps. One game each, but the explosive play is the way Ohio State scores. Result: Ohio State explosive-play rate: 14.3% (target at most 12%).
Hit
Stay on schedule on first down. Before the game: Ohio State's defense held Ball State to 15% success on first down. Texas was at 42% on first down in Week 1 and converted all 5 of its 3rd-and-short snaps, so the plan is to stay out of long yardage. Result: Texas first-down success: 40% (target at least 40%).
Hit
Make them run it. Before the game: Against Ball State, Ohio State's passing game succeeded 72% of the time (+0.83 a dropback) and its running game 40%. Texas allowed 47% on Texas State's dropbacks with no sacks. Result: Ohio State dropback success: 38.2% (target at most 45%).
Graded on the full game, misses included.
Carry into UTSA: Texas has opened two games with very different first quarters. UTSA's offense runs the ball up the middle well (62% success on 29 carries).
Every snap is counted, garbage time included, so a few rates differ slightly from tables that leave it out. Sacks count as dropbacks, not runs. A play is a success if it gains 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or all of them on 3rd and 4th. Expected points per play measure how much each snap changed the value of the possession. Points by quarter and by possession reconcile to the final score. Built from public sources.
Sat, Sep 5DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumTexas now 1-0Line Texas -29.5 · covered by 22.5
Texas scored on eight of its nine real possessions and never punted
Texas had nine possessions before the end of the game and scored on eight of them, seven touchdowns and a field goal. The ninth ended on an interception in the end zone with six seconds left in the half. It never punted. Arch Manning went 20 of 27 for 305 yards and 4 touchdowns, the offense averaged +0.46 expected points a snap, and the defense added a touchdown of its own when Rasheem Biles forced a fumble and Graceson Littleton returned it 59 yards. Texas State moved the ball between the 20s (349 yards) but came away with 7 points from four trips past the Texas 40, missing field goals from 24 and 35 yards.
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Final
Texas
14
14
21
10
59
Texas State
0
7
0
0
7
The five factors: Texas won 5 of 5Efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers decide most college games
EfficiencyTexas
Success rate, every snap
50%Texas · 35 of 70
39%Texas State · 27 of 70
ExplosivenessTexas
Runs of 10+ and completions of 15+
15Texas · 21% of snaps
9Texas State · 13% of snaps
Field positionTexas
Average start of a possession
Own 40Texas · 9 possessions
Own 22Texas State · 11 possessions
Finishing drivesTexas
Points per trip past the opponent 40
5.8Texas · 52 pts on 9 trips
1.8Texas State · 7 pts on 4 trips
TurnoversTexas
Giveaways, and points scored off them
1Texas · 21 points off theirs
3Texas State · 0 points off ours
Texas won all five. The finishing factor was the widest: nine trips past the Texas State 40 produced 52 points, and Texas State's four produced 7. Field position followed from it, because Texas never punted and Texas State's three turnovers gave Texas short fields.
Game flowExpected points added up snap by snap, every possession, and every score
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Texas offense (+32.1)Texas State offense (-2.5)Possession scoredTurnover or downsPunt or end of halfThin lines: scores
Good signTexas' line climbs from the first possession and keeps climbing through the third quarter; the flattening after that is garbage time. Texas State's line drifts around zero all night, the shape of an offense that gains yards without turning them into points.
Q3 5:00TexasRaleek Brown 21 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)49-7
Q4 6:00TexasGianni Spetic 48 Yd Field Goal52-7
Q4 2:08TexasJames Simon 7 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)59-7
The moments that decided it6 plays and drives, in order
Q1 12:14Texas 0-0
Explosive
Smothers, 45 yards up the middle
On Texas' first snap of the season, Hollywood Smothers ran 45 yards to set up the opening touchdown, Manning's 6-yard throw to Cam Coleman on 3rd-and-5.
Q1 6:46Texas 7-0
Stop
Fourth down at the Texas 42
Texas State went for it on 4th-and-4. Alex January broke up the throw. Texas went 58 yards the other way, converting a 4th-and-3 with a 21-yard throw to Ryan Wingo, for a 14-0 lead.
Q2 14:11Texas 14-0
Stop
A 13-play drive, no points
Texas State's best drive went 82 yards to the Texas 4 and ended with a missed 24-yard field goal. Texas answered with a 13-play, 80-yard touchdown drive, Raleek Brown's 13-yard run on 3rd-and-2.
Q2 5:56Texas 21-0
Defensive TD
Biles forces it, Littleton takes it 59
Biles knocked the ball out of Taji Atkins' hands at the Texas 41 and Littleton returned it for a touchdown. 28-0.
Q2 0:06Texas 28-7
Turnover
An interception in the end zone
After a 45-yard throw to Wingo on 3rd-and-15, Texas reached the Texas State 10 with seconds left. Manning's 3rd-and-11 throw was intercepted for a touchback. The only Texas possession of the night that did not score.
Q3 14:04Texas 28-7
Explosive
Coleman twice, then garbage time
Coleman caught a 44-yarder on 3rd-and-2 and then a 20-yard touchdown on 3rd-and-7. 35-7, and the rest of the game was garbage time.
Quarter by quarter
Qtr
Points
Texas success
EPA/play
Texas State success
EPA/play
Q1
14-0
54% 11 snaps
+0.81
38% 24
-0.09
Q2
14-7
54% 26 snaps
+0.18
38% 13
+0.36
Q3
21-0
50% 18 snaps
+0.74
41% 17
-0.05
Q4
10-0
40% 15 snaps
+0.34
38% 16
-0.26
Texas was above 50% success in each of the first three quarters, and by the third it was 35-7 and into garbage time, so the fourth quarter (40%) is mostly the second unit. Texas State's offense was steady at 38 to 41% every quarter: it moved, it just did not finish.
Team stats
Texas
Texas State
Total yards
516
349
Plays
70
70
Yards per play
7.4
5.0
Expected points per play
+0.46
-0.04
Passing
26 of 34, 360 yds
20 of 29, 188 yds
Dropback success
63% (35)
45% (31)
Rushing (sacks included)
36 for 156
41 for 161
Run success
37% (35)
33% (39)
Sacks allowed
1 (3% of dropbacks)
2 (6%)
Third down
11 of 15
8 of 14
First downs
26
18
Penalties
4 for 35
3 for 30
Turnovers
1
3
Three-and-outs
0 of 9
0 of 11
Possession
29:34
30:26
What Texas did well, and what it didn't
What went well
Finishing. Nine trips past the Texas State 40, 52 points, seven touchdowns. Texas never punted.
The passing game. 63% of dropbacks were successful at +0.78 expected points each, with 15 explosive plays for the night. Manning's four touchdown passes went to Coleman (2), Wingo and Smothers.
Takeaways that scored. Three Texas State turnovers became 21 Texas points: the Littleton return and two touchdown drives that started in Texas State territory.
Third down. 13 of 17 on third and fourth downs, including all 5 with 3 yards or fewer to go.
What didn't
The running game, outside the explosives. Run success was 37% (13 of 35), and Brown's 11 carries went for 34 yards. The big runs (45, 21, 13) hid a lot of short ones.
Texas State moved the ball. 349 yards and 39% success. Two drives of 13 and 16 plays reached field-goal range and ended in misses from 24 and 35 yards; a better kicker makes this a less comfortable night.
The end-zone interception. A 3rd-and-11 throw from the 11 with six seconds left, when a field goal was available.
Why Texas wonThe contributing factors, most important first
1. Touchdowns on every trip but one. 52 points on nine trips past the 40, against 7 on four for Texas State.
2. Turnovers. 3 to 1, and 21 points off them.
3. Big plays. 15 explosive plays to Texas State's 9, six of them 20 yards or more.
Top performersFrom the box score
Texas
Arch Manning QB
20 of 27, 305 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
Plus 2 conversions on fourth down. The only blemish was the end-zone interception before the half.
Ryan Wingo WR
7 catches, 121 yds, 1 TD
The 45-yard catch on 3rd-and-15 and the 21-yarder on 4th-and-3.
Cam Coleman WR
3 catches, 70 yds, 2 TD
Every catch either scored or set up a score.
Hollywood Smothers RB
10 carries, 70 yds · 3 catches, 28 yds, 1 TD
The 45-yard run on the first drive.
Rasheem Biles LB
5 tackles, 1 INT, forced fumble
Took the ball away twice, once for the Littleton touchdown.
Graceson Littleton DB
6 tackles, 59-yd fumble return TD
The defensive touchdown that made it 28-0.
Texas State
Brad Jackson QB
15 of 23, 150 yds, 1 INT · 27 rushing yds
Efficient between the 20s; the 41-yard completion to Tucker Cusano was their longest play.
Tucker Cusano WR
3 catches, 58 yds
Jaylen Jenkins RB
6 carries, 34 yds
Long of 22.
HomerProof keys for Texas State, graded
4 Hit0 Split0 Miss
Hit
Win the short middle. Before the game: Texas State's 2025 defense allowed 73% success and +1.12 expected points a throw over the short middle (22 throws), its worst area. It was also Manning's best throw last season (50%, +0.62). Result: Texas success on short-middle throws: 66.7% (target at least 55%).
Hit
Make them throw. Before the game: Texas State ran on 57% of its 2025 snaps and succeeded 45% of the time at +0.26 expected points a carry; runs to the right worked 79% of the time (19 carries). Texas' 2025 run defense held teams to 37%. Result: Texas State run success: 33.3% (target at most 38%).
Hit
Touchdowns, not field goals. Before the game: Texas State allowed 47% success inside its 20 in 2025 (133 snaps), so the red zone should be open. Texas succeeded on 45% of its own red-zone snaps last season. Result: Texas points per trip past the 40: 5.8 points (target at least 5.0 points).
Hit
Win third-and-long. Before the game: Texas State converted only 29% of its third and fourth downs needing 7 or more in 2025, but the ones it hit were big (+0.55 expected points a snap). Texas' 2025 defense allowed 21% there. Result: Texas State success on 3rd/4th and 7 or more: 0% (target at most 25%).
Graded on the full game, misses included.
Carry into Ohio State: the defense allowed success on 45% of Texas State's dropbacks and did not record a sack until the third quarter. Ohio State's passing game is the opposite of Texas State's.
Every snap is counted, garbage time included, so a few rates differ slightly from tables that leave it out. Sacks count as dropbacks, not runs. A play is a success if it gains 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or all of them on 3rd and 4th. Expected points per play measure how much each snap changed the value of the possession. Points by quarter and by possession reconcile to the final score. Built from public sources.
